{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5588755b-5f49-4d3b-9a44-f20b241419e9", "symbol": "002656", "name": "Modern Avenue Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.081, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.672, "architecture_energy": 41.887, "architecture_maturity": 7.725, "architecture_confidence": 59.275, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.9, "rotation_up": 18.41, "upward_expansion": 14.12, "deceleration": 50.07, "rotation_down": 65.39, "downward_expansion": 55.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.782667, 2.858364, 3.019429, 3.025075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.92, "trend_reference": 2.984333, "distance_from_trend": -0.021557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.083077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.401773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.353034, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.093633, "excess_performance": 0.086233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034192, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.401773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191032, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.02353, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022289, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.054711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78583384, "relative_activity": 1.668096, "balance": 1.054711, "dry_up": 1.316317, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093519, "annualized_volatility": 0.346317, "from_high_reference": -0.191136, "from_low_reference": 0.309417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.984333, "fair_value_reference": 2.083077, "structural_low": 2.44, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.217993, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.139554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.217993, "worst_return": 0.217993, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.083045, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195914, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.083045, "worst_return": -0.083045, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.100346, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098497, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.100346, "worst_return": 0.100346, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.69697, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041841, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.155556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059524, "active": false 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"close": 2.83, "volume": 24291124, "typical_volume": 49998816.95, "trend": 2.986667, "fair_value": 2.073333, "relative_strength": 3.156741, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.670264, "energy": 36.762941, "activity_lines": [ 2.904667, 3.048182, 3.123238, 3.072043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.57, "volume": 82640719, "typical_volume": 51239250.5, "trend": 2.980333, "fair_value": 2.075321, "relative_strength": -6.506938, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.712942, "energy": 60.294884, "activity_lines": [ 2.778, 2.938909, 3.071095, 3.045161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.73, "volume": 62529583, "typical_volume": 48660569.85, "trend": 2.981, "fair_value": 2.078782, "relative_strength": 0.810281, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.039233, "energy": 57.168659, "activity_lines": [ 2.744667, 2.874545, 3.035476, 3.029011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.92, "volume": 78583384, "typical_volume": 47109626.65, "trend": 2.984333, "fair_value": 2.083077, "relative_strength": 2.353034, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.672098, "energy": 41.887116, "activity_lines": [ 2.782667, 2.858364, 3.019429, 3.025075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }