{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5589fd34-bf27-4047-bb8c-723052d9d736", "symbol": "AVX", "name": "HL Global Enterprises Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.17, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -47.211, "architecture_energy": 53.175, "architecture_maturity": 27.591, "architecture_confidence": 73.994, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.3, "rotation_up": 20.11, "upward_expansion": 20.13, "deceleration": 41.57, "rotation_down": 66.04, "downward_expansion": 57.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.396667, 0.412455, 0.42231, 0.424742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.36, "trend_reference": 0.421, "distance_from_trend": -0.144893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.296731, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213221, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.01914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.052632, "excess_performance": -0.207467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144893, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037798, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213221, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273336, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313985, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.052632, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.550957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92000, "relative_activity": 0.967963, "balance": 0.550957, "dry_up": 0.527119, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110043, "annualized_volatility": 0.35791, "from_high_reference": -0.294118, "from_low_reference": 0.263158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.421, "fair_value_reference": 0.296731, "structural_low": 0.35, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.296296, "median_excess_return": -0.008831, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.16, "worst_return": -0.160714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.016393, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.050453, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.192308, "worst_return": -0.152542, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.032258, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.049407, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.211538, "worst_return": -0.113208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011425, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094183, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.634615, "worst_return": -0.189655, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039216, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.303571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011364, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.162791, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.26, "volume": 5400, "typical_volume": 58535.0, "trend": 0.257833, "fair_value": 0.275256, "relative_strength": 1.170561, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.212986, "energy": 4.809586, "activity_lines": [ 0.431, 0.433, 0.433024, 0.42957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.415, "volume": 106800, "typical_volume": 98925.0, "trend": 0.420167, "fair_value": 0.295128, "relative_strength": -7.286777, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.275616, "energy": 6.652202, "activity_lines": [ 0.425, 0.429182, 0.431167, 0.429344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.41, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 91235.0, "trend": 0.421167, "fair_value": 0.29609, "relative_strength": -9.123432, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.110124, "energy": 15.833365, "activity_lines": [ 0.418333, 0.424909, 0.429048, 0.428688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.36, "volume": 92000, "typical_volume": 95045.0, "trend": 0.421, "fair_value": 0.296731, "relative_strength": -21.01914, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.211117, "energy": 53.175158, "activity_lines": [ 0.396667, 0.412455, 0.42231, 0.424742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }