{ "ticker": { "uuid": "558a9333-3a07-43f5-a490-4b7baa9b9fd4", "symbol": "603990", "name": "Suzhou MedicalSystem Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.072, "architecture_energy": 26.877, "architecture_maturity": 75.05, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.08, "rotation_up": 30.35, "upward_expansion": 56.7, "deceleration": 88.3, "rotation_down": 35.81, "downward_expansion": 22.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.419999, 19.866909, 19.303095, 18.349656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 22.309999, "trend_reference": 17.230666, "distance_from_trend": 0.294784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.576603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.643268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.924217, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.486342, "excess_performance": 0.529546, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.294784, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.643268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.436142, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.369242, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.424809, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.486342, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.105712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153609347, "relative_activity": 2.037866, "balance": 2.105712, "dry_up": 1.480871, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122263, "annualized_volatility": 0.505833, "from_high_reference": -0.054661, "from_low_reference": 0.623726 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.230666, "fair_value_reference": 13.576603, "structural_low": 13.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000352, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.284677, "worst_return": -0.14926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.048365, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.019317, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.039594, "worst_return": -0.064715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.035533, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.082379, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286595, "worst_return": -0.234332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.189836, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037671, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114173, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037687, "active": false }, { 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"direction": 63.171721, "energy": 55.690905, "activity_lines": [ 21.089333, 20.750182, 18.88219, 17.858989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.280001, "volume": 89087337, "typical_volume": 66495091.7, "trend": 16.859, "fair_value": 13.5475, "relative_strength": 11.709587, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.344696, "energy": 27.033119, "activity_lines": [ 19.737334, 20.285636, 18.862952, 17.89 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.459999, "volume": 102563196, "typical_volume": 69401393.7, "trend": 16.933667, "fair_value": 13.541667, "relative_strength": 11.501606, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.986877, "energy": 22.738004, "activity_lines": [ 18.762667, 19.829454, 18.849619, 17.928774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.139999, "volume": 101237974, "typical_volume": 71908852.05, "trend": 16.992667, "fair_value": 13.542564, "relative_strength": 15.138949, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.565319, "energy": 25.987269, "activity_lines": [ 18.304666, 19.480545, 18.885333, 18.006602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.309999, "volume": 153609347, "typical_volume": 75377554.25, "trend": 17.230666, "fair_value": 13.576603, "relative_strength": 36.924217, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.07184, "energy": 26.87743, "activity_lines": [ 19.419999, 19.866909, 19.303095, 18.349656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }