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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 78.829, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.609, "architecture_energy": 40.473, "architecture_maturity": 22.649, "architecture_confidence": 66.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.8, "rotation_up": 58.8, "upward_expansion": 80.36, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 18.19, "downward_expansion": 4.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.364042, 121.790266, 118.718337, 117.977176 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 123.0, "trend_reference": 117.79121, "distance_from_trend": 0.044221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 129.022198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.046676, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.139172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024328, "excess_performance": -0.417044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013797, "read": "Rising" 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"volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 21284.9, "trend": 115.803939, "fair_value": 129.081516, "relative_strength": -36.254121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.018755, "energy": 13.640338, "activity_lines": [ 114.891343, 113.502795, 114.461345, 115.228078 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 118.157486, "volume": 18440, "typical_volume": 15282.05, "trend": 115.83596, "fair_value": 129.066741, "relative_strength": -32.666408, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 8.210671, "energy": 17.866889, "activity_lines": [ 116.39633, 114.44596, 114.655759, 115.37992 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 120.078743, "volume": 6014, "typical_volume": 14132.75, "trend": 115.867982, "fair_value": 129.075158, "relative_strength": -33.935401, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.136055, "energy": 30.402737, "activity_lines": [ 118.029401, 115.659846, 115.06517, 115.653648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 122.960632, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 13430.0, "trend": 116.044097, "fair_value": 129.053107, "relative_strength": -29.365709, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.374293, "energy": 57.731634, "activity_lines": [ 120.046723, 117.266718, 115.749047, 116.111238 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 122.960632, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 13080.0, "trend": 116.300265, "fair_value": 129.04737, "relative_strength": -24.126463, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.35408, "energy": 71.865426, "activity_lines": [ 121.423625, 118.672731, 116.419201, 116.557466 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.0, "volume": 8001, "typical_volume": 12229.5, "trend": 116.768506, "fair_value": 129.032953, "relative_strength": -23.792618, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.945428, "energy": 78.548932, "activity_lines": [ 122.93596, 120.239945, 117.265282, 117.118739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 118.5, "volume": 26091, "typical_volume": 12834.05, "trend": 117.036092, "fair_value": 129.003633, "relative_strength": -26.039303, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.016205, "energy": 56.952372, "activity_lines": [ 121.82546, 120.378671, 117.464307, 117.230449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 123.0, "volume": 3034, "typical_volume": 12785.75, "trend": 117.389635, "fair_value": 128.989219, "relative_strength": -24.353905, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.948178, "energy": 44.306509, "activity_lines": [ 122.192126, 121.189622, 118.099421, 117.615217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 123.0, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 12683.75, "trend": 117.79121, "fair_value": 129.022198, "relative_strength": -26.139172, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.60949, "energy": 40.47265, "activity_lines": [ 122.364042, 121.790266, 118.718337, 117.977176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }