{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5590117d-77c1-4cfb-aadd-76dc2654dbed", "symbol": "00641R", "name": "Fubon TOPIX Inverse -1X Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.988, "architecture_energy": 41.937, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.79, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.6, "rotation_up": 26.14, "upward_expansion": 5.7, "deceleration": 60.09, "rotation_down": 47.95, "downward_expansion": 79.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.766, 3.782182, 3.838905, 3.914796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.73, "trend_reference": 4.020333, "distance_from_trend": -0.072216, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.858718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.363342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.591004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.146453, "excess_performance": -0.525765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072216, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.363342, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.39591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.146453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.506986, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6854000, "relative_activity": 0.915542, "balance": 0.506986, "dry_up": 1.097775, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038152, "annualized_volatility": 0.182162, "from_high_reference": -0.320583, "from_low_reference": 0.01084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.020333, "fair_value_reference": 5.858718, "structural_low": 3.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 49, "median_return": -0.020779, "positive_rate": 0.306122, "directional_follow_through": 0.693878, "median_excess_return": -0.02524, "regime_survival": 0.918367, "best_return": 0.115824, "worst_return": -0.085561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.044374, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.098867, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.028426, "worst_return": -0.16318, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.098994, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.22867, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.054822, "worst_return": -0.205021, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4.103667, "fair_value": 5.943141, "relative_strength": -38.153394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.451192, "energy": 40.966022, "activity_lines": [ 3.823333, 3.824909, 3.902952, 3.979011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.77, "volume": 6297000, "typical_volume": 7435486.65, "trend": 4.074667, "fair_value": 5.914872, "relative_strength": -40.525988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.53057, "energy": 39.723684, "activity_lines": [ 3.812667, 3.812364, 3.882, 3.957484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.73, "volume": 11069000, "typical_volume": 7448136.65, "trend": 4.047, "fair_value": 5.886667, "relative_strength": -39.260011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.369032, "energy": 41.648735, "activity_lines": [ 3.785333, 3.795636, 3.85919, 3.935247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.73, "volume": 6854000, "typical_volume": 7486278.65, "trend": 4.020333, "fair_value": 5.858718, "relative_strength": -39.591004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.988185, "energy": 41.937315, "activity_lines": [ 3.766, 3.782182, 3.838905, 3.914796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }