{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5593fdac-ab57-4829-9618-91b2dc15c2bb", "symbol": "BTC", "name": "GRAYSCALE BITCOIN MINI TRUST ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.94, "architecture_energy": 29.605, "architecture_maturity": 60.195, "architecture_confidence": 86.402, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.97, "rotation_up": 25.84, "upward_expansion": 15.66, "deceleration": 45.88, "rotation_down": 34.58, "downward_expansion": 63.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.335333, 28.013818, 29.411524, 30.090602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 28.73, "trend_reference": 31.364, "distance_from_trend": -0.083982, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.546321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.214831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072927, "excess_performance": -0.198552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.083982, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.322148, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06164, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072927, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.546889, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6219092, "relative_activity": 0.632246, "balance": 0.546889, "dry_up": 0.704445, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076387, "annualized_volatility": 0.379411, "from_high_reference": -0.486598, "from_low_reference": 0.120078 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.364, "fair_value_reference": 38.546321, "structural_low": 25.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006145, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.17032, "worst_return": -0.063977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.022728, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08373, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.144563, "worst_return": -0.19002, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.072927, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.198552, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.072927, "worst_return": -0.072927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.144563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071469, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076433, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 27.8, "volume": 59539928, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 26.9, "volume": 42025063, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-16", "close": 26.45, "volume": 24655840, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-23", "close": 28.25, "volume": 32728955, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 26.0, "volume": 41210674, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-06", "close": 23.75, "volume": 31686350, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 26.5, "volume": 32984486, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 27.9, "volume": 36365564, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 29.1, "volume": 28369312, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 27.7, "volume": 32171682, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 28.05, "volume": 29550885, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 30.4, "volume": 46476900, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 29.6, "volume": 39968781, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 30.7, "volume": 63220454, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-08", "close": 34.0, "volume": 62272680, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 40.6, "volume": 135431170, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 44.05, "volume": 43579349, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", "close": 43.09, "volume": 6192089, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-06", "close": 45.1, "volume": 6483919, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-13", "close": 45.11, "volume": 6339005, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 42.71, "volume": 12640380, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 41.82, "volume": 5312483, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 43.6, "volume": 4886883, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 41.99, "volume": 7870148, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-17", "close": 46.43, "volume": 5962209, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 46.51, "volume": 6916476, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 45.01, "volume": 5427018, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 42.42, "volume": 6448235, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-14", "close": 43.11, "volume": 3694568, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-21", "close": 42.02, "volume": 3411437, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-28", "close": 37.33, "volume": 9435705, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-07", "close": 38.54, "volume": 6103426, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-14", "close": 37.54, "volume": 5210106, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-21", "close": 37.19, "volume": 3820503, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-03-28", "close": 37.07, "volume": 3316566, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-04", "close": 37.21, "volume": 5708324, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-11", "close": 37.16, "volume": 9348882, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-18", "close": 37.65, "volume": 3102031, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-04-25", "close": 42.3, "volume": 9378332, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-02", "close": 42.96, "volume": 5140111, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-09", "close": 45.75, "volume": 4904395, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-16", "close": 46.15, "volume": 4788493, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-23", "close": 48.18, "volume": 6358001, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-05-30", "close": 46.29, "volume": 4386069, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-06", "close": 46.19, "volume": 4037655, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-13", "close": 46.61, "volume": 3338867, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-20", "close": 45.74, "volume": 3798904, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-06-27", "close": 47.32, "volume": 3695677, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-04", "close": 48.41, "volume": 4361487, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-11", "close": 52.38, "volume": 7462901, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-18", "close": 52.0, "volume": 8755104, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-07-25", "close": 51.77, "volume": 7290869, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-01", "close": 50.05, "volume": 7061370, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-08", "close": 51.56, "volume": 4562430, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-15", "close": 51.82, "volume": 6293043, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-22", "close": 51.71, "volume": 5141098, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-08-29", "close": 47.93, "volume": 5977325, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-05", "close": 49.44, "volume": 5134718, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-12", "close": 51.78, "volume": 4575011, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-19", "close": 50.98, "volume": 5508311, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-09-26", "close": 48.34, "volume": 5888126, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-03", "close": 54.43, "volume": 8506848, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-10", "close": 51.62, "volume": 11973562, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-17", "close": 47.14, "volume": 14627085, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-24", "close": 48.99, "volume": 10333803, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-10-31", "close": 48.62, "volume": 9893954, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-07", "close": 45.95, "volume": 12260295, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-14", "close": 41.72, "volume": 10527289, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-21", "close": 37.44, "volume": 18783035, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-11-28", "close": 40.17, "volume": 10671798, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-05", "close": 39.55, "volume": 9996190, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-12", "close": 39.95, "volume": 14278283, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-19", "close": 38.97, "volume": 19886477, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-12-26", "close": 38.74, "volume": 9067675, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-02", "close": 39.74, "volume": 11287225, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "close": 39.94, "volume": 11733515, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-16", "close": 42.28, "volume": 16541190, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-23", "close": 39.58, "volume": 14921787, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-01-30", "close": 37.08, "volume": 19142980, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-02-06", "close": 30.99, "volume": 50378892, "typical_volume": 14535000.45, "trend": 45.342667, "fair_value": 41.1865, "relative_strength": -36.903183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.490068, "energy": 64.397348, "activity_lines": [ 36.434, 37.925091, 39.930667, 42.335441 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-13", "close": 30.43, "volume": 20350472, "typical_volume": 15258117.75, "trend": 44.623667, "fair_value": 41.053704, "relative_strength": -36.777393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.657902, "energy": 88.622458, "activity_lines": [ 33.919333, 36.424727, 38.775238, 41.373333 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-20", "close": 29.97, "volume": 18710161, "typical_volume": 15768283.4, "trend": 43.897, "fair_value": 40.918537, "relative_strength": -37.963905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.053578, "energy": 92.298988, "activity_lines": [ 31.885333, 35.006545, 37.661286, 40.427935 ] }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "close": 29.02, "volume": 38138391, "typical_volume": 17076524.85, "trend": 43.196, "fair_value": 40.775181, "relative_strength": -39.274851, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.182295, "energy": 92.068623, "activity_lines": [ 30.355333, 33.597091, 36.573333, 39.468129 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-06", "close": 30.12, "volume": 36157755, "typical_volume": 18153058.35, "trend": 42.481333, "fair_value": 40.648333, "relative_strength": -35.288117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.912222, "energy": 87.441956, "activity_lines": [ 29.896, 32.568545, 35.697762, 38.624516 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-13", "close": 31.5, "volume": 21676061, "typical_volume": 18720171.25, "trend": 41.804, "fair_value": 40.540706, "relative_strength": -30.909841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.699672, "energy": 77.027749, "activity_lines": [ 30.360667, 31.947636, 35.034667, 37.916043 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-20", "close": 31.05, "volume": 16190558, "typical_volume": 19035001.45, "trend": 41.115333, "fair_value": 40.430349, "relative_strength": -30.282732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.909261, "energy": 59.88775, "activity_lines": [ 30.641333, 31.394727, 34.412, 37.222237 ] }, { "date": "2026-03-27", "close": 29.19, "volume": 17330861, "typical_volume": 19288529.75, "trend": 40.490667, "fair_value": 40.301149, "relative_strength": -32.557326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.139738, "energy": 57.76784, "activity_lines": [ 30.260667, 30.665273, 33.695857, 36.45286 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-03", "close": 29.65, "volume": 14115999, "typical_volume": 19467965.25, "trend": 39.831, "fair_value": 40.180114, "relative_strength": -33.214502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.589457, "energy": 52.76965, "activity_lines": [ 30.085333, 30.257455, 33.103333, 35.753462 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 32.44, "volume": 12865117, "typical_volume": 19172069.35, "trend": 39.186333, "fair_value": 40.093146, "relative_strength": -29.014567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.740599, "energy": 41.708453, "activity_lines": [ 30.798, 30.537455, 32.834, 35.276624 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 34.3, "volume": 14822968, "typical_volume": 19379627.85, "trend": 38.630333, "fair_value": 40.028778, "relative_strength": -27.69003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.605113, "energy": 31.125274, "activity_lines": [ 31.976, 31.24, 32.765619, 34.961376 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 34.37, "volume": 7828725, "typical_volume": 19271254.6, "trend": 38.164667, "fair_value": 39.966593, "relative_strength": -27.309503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.93662, "energy": 22.97648, "activity_lines": [ 32.990667, 31.895091, 32.731857, 34.686516 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "close": 34.7, "volume": 8243818, "typical_volume": 18969531.35, "trend": 37.507, "fair_value": 39.909348, "relative_strength": -26.687812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.708697, "energy": 24.486161, "activity_lines": [ 33.894, 32.538545, 32.75419, 34.462989 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-08", "close": 35.47, "volume": 7310688, "typical_volume": 18340741.9, "trend": 36.968667, "fair_value": 39.861613, "relative_strength": -26.050832, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.067488, "energy": 22.352472, "activity_lines": [ 34.686667, 33.236, 32.874857, 34.33157 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-15", "close": 34.98, "volume": 7405375, "typical_volume": 18257626.9, "trend": 36.563333, "fair_value": 39.809681, "relative_strength": -26.546821, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.240261, "energy": 21.919712, "activity_lines": [ 34.928, 33.727091, 32.965524, 34.203269 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 33.53, "volume": 7660797, "typical_volume": 18076305.5, "trend": 36.048, "fair_value": 39.743579, "relative_strength": -29.376568, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.229971, "energy": 16.763134, "activity_lines": [ 34.516667, 33.866182, 32.936, 34.00757 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 32.48, "volume": 7617379, "typical_volume": 17870498.7, "trend": 35.51, "fair_value": 39.667917, "relative_strength": -31.816741, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.474432, "energy": 10.587374, "activity_lines": [ 33.806667, 33.777455, 32.836048, 33.777376 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 26.69, "volume": 17506396, "typical_volume": 17918759.0, "trend": 34.868, "fair_value": 39.534124, "relative_strength": -41.790394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.347356, "energy": 45.563216, "activity_lines": [ 31.292667, 32.61, 32.22019, 33.208344 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 28.13, "volume": 12576763, "typical_volume": 17801507.8, "trend": 34.415, "fair_value": 39.417755, "relative_strength": -38.212695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.84724, "energy": 70.471811, "activity_lines": [ 29.792667, 31.749818, 31.815714, 32.773634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 27.84, "volume": 7140853, "typical_volume": 17201401.45, "trend": 34.095, "fair_value": 39.300808, "relative_strength": -38.635369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.67925, "energy": 79.991392, "activity_lines": [ 28.685333, 30.864545, 31.438143, 32.349441 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 26.39, "volume": 12337096, "typical_volume": 15299311.65, "trend": 33.635667, "fair_value": 39.1717, "relative_strength": -39.619968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.730029, "energy": 86.171257, "activity_lines": [ 27.570667, 29.799273, 30.966476, 31.852344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.18, "volume": 7446073, "typical_volume": 14654091.7, "trend": 33.223333, "fair_value": 39.05297, "relative_strength": -38.304184, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.461379, "energy": 80.249624, "activity_lines": [ 27.195333, 29.021455, 30.591952, 31.435849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.27, "volume": 6804125, "typical_volume": 14058789.9, "trend": 32.834, "fair_value": 38.947255, "relative_strength": -35.702007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.875976, "energy": 67.347225, "activity_lines": [ 27.536667, 28.572545, 30.336714, 31.11628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.38, "volume": 7332584, "typical_volume": 12518499.55, "trend": 32.481, "fair_value": 38.84466, "relative_strength": -33.437157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.124166, "energy": 51.119974, "activity_lines": [ 27.809333, 28.260545, 30.100048, 30.828925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.37, "volume": 6612288, "typical_volume": 11041226.2, "trend": 32.135333, "fair_value": 38.743942, "relative_strength": -32.071355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.544634, "energy": 41.885128, "activity_lines": [ 28.062, 28.075636, 29.865476, 30.563699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.81, "volume": 7553160, "typical_volume": 10335081.15, "trend": 31.737667, "fair_value": 38.63981, "relative_strength": -33.129356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.482733, "energy": 34.398129, "activity_lines": [ 28.092667, 27.909091, 29.585905, 30.284645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.73, "volume": 6219092, "typical_volume": 9836507.85, "trend": 31.364, "fair_value": 38.546321, "relative_strength": -32.214831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.939768, "energy": 29.604718, "activity_lines": [ 28.335333, 28.013818, 29.411524, 30.090602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }