{ "ticker": { "uuid": "559449c6-cc11-4c84-90d2-79b9f73675e0", "symbol": "KFM", "name": "Kingfisher Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.883, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.383, "architecture_energy": 34.895, "architecture_maturity": 22.284, "architecture_confidence": 86.8, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.23, "rotation_up": 18.3, "upward_expansion": 3.2, "deceleration": 51.74, "rotation_down": 53.48, "downward_expansion": 76.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.075467, 0.0766, 0.079129, 0.07994 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.072, "trend_reference": 0.081633, "distance_from_trend": -0.118007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.082834, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130796, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.717224, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.1, "excess_performance": -0.163706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006491, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.137172, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307391, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.1, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.120218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34698, "relative_activity": 0.088425, "balance": 6.120218, "dry_up": 2.136104, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105769, "annualized_volatility": 0.410967, "from_high_reference": -0.446154, "from_low_reference": 0.44 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.081633, "fair_value_reference": 0.082834, "structural_low": 0.071, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.070423, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.084747, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.481481, "worst_return": -0.364286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.180894, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.184124, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.414286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.223697, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.235139, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.59, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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-52.468188, "energy": 54.185823, "activity_lines": [ 0.076733, 0.079255, 0.080933, 0.081619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.08, "volume": 3031211, "typical_volume": 445201.65, "trend": 0.083133, "fair_value": 0.086745, "relative_strength": 1.435038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.482019, "energy": 47.943824, "activity_lines": [ 0.077133, 0.079091, 0.080824, 0.08143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.076, "volume": 259869, "typical_volume": 417172.15, "trend": 0.0827, "fair_value": 0.085181, "relative_strength": -3.514024, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.180592, "energy": 51.200854, "activity_lines": [ 0.076533, 0.078291, 0.080343, 0.08097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.077, "volume": 27040, "typical_volume": 412233.7, "trend": 0.082267, "fair_value": 0.083751, "relative_strength": -4.643544, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.003492, "energy": 28.963571, "activity_lines": [ 0.0768, 0.077909, 0.079971, 0.080602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.072, "volume": 34698, "typical_volume": 392398.8, "trend": 0.081633, "fair_value": 0.082834, "relative_strength": -13.717224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.382737, "energy": 34.89546, "activity_lines": [ 0.075467, 0.0766, 0.079129, 0.07994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }