{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5595318d-aebf-4e75-b78d-9a5b7d123523", "symbol": "SX5S", "name": "Invesco EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.223, "architecture_energy": 60.388, "architecture_maturity": 33.473, "architecture_confidence": 87.481, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.47, "rotation_up": 58.98, "upward_expansion": 82.64, "deceleration": 55.44, "rotation_down": 24.04, "downward_expansion": 9.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 14214.2, 14136.745455, 13888.3, 13668.150538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14600.0, "trend_reference": 13458.133333, "distance_from_trend": 0.084846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11178.598082, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306067, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.327031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09692, "excess_performance": 0.045684, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306067, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07731, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.03327, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03301, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09692, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.184861, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10561, "relative_activity": 0.853518, "balance": 1.184861, "dry_up": 0.668707, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023977, "annualized_volatility": 0.180912, "from_high_reference": -0.004526, "from_low_reference": 0.249933 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13458.133333, "fair_value_reference": 11178.598082, "structural_low": 11942.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.000335, "positive_rate": 0.457143, "directional_follow_through": 0.457143, "median_excess_return": -0.001266, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.07842, "worst_return": -0.107028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.020712, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.010223, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.107022, "worst_return": -0.06426, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.087669, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.017354, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.132256, "worst_return": -0.016274, "sufficient": true }, { 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13305.9, "fair_value": 11049.332056, "relative_strength": 2.489385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.859602, "energy": 73.499165, "activity_lines": [ 14088.933333, 13934.636364, 13607.857143, 13465.189247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13824.0, "volume": 10038, "typical_volume": 16141.2, "trend": 13336.6, "fair_value": 11079.271159, "relative_strength": 0.720501, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.734178, "energy": 49.363732, "activity_lines": [ 14004.8, 13944.909091, 13652.1, 13498.615054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13983.0, "volume": 5421, "typical_volume": 14370.85, "trend": 13375.3, "fair_value": 11109.639749, "relative_strength": 0.596146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.679713, "energy": 44.285002, "activity_lines": [ 13977.666667, 13973.327273, 13711.371429, 13540.31828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14171.0, "volume": 7077, "typical_volume": 13267.2, "trend": 13414.3, "fair_value": 11142.610902, "relative_strength": 0.653559, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.879964, "energy": 43.450986, "activity_lines": [ 14030.2, 14021.654545, 13783.061905, 13591.653763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14600.0, "volume": 10561, "typical_volume": 12373.5, "trend": 13458.133333, "fair_value": 11178.598082, "relative_strength": 3.327031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.223217, "energy": 60.387581, "activity_lines": [ 14214.2, 14136.745455, 13888.3, 13668.150538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }