{ "ticker": { "uuid": "559eddec-767c-4924-8d0e-cc9bc6b36850", "symbol": "VP", "name": "Vp plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.717, "architecture_energy": 7.454, "architecture_maturity": 30.501, "architecture_confidence": 42.403, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.34, "rotation_up": 23.3, "upward_expansion": 31.11, "deceleration": 56.06, "rotation_down": 37.04, "downward_expansion": 48.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 477.066667, 477.200858, 473.571842, 471.63227 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 470.0, "trend_reference": 477.293062, "distance_from_trend": -0.01528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 566.495256, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.419932, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.12963, "excess_performance": -0.180865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01528, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048985, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170337, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164199, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016278, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.12963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.389244, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65061, "relative_activity": 1.116897, "balance": 1.389244, "dry_up": 0.93564, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083321, "annualized_volatility": 0.400763, "from_high_reference": -0.241774, "from_low_reference": 0.119048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 477.293062, "fair_value_reference": 566.495256, "structural_low": 420.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.027774, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.021166, "regime_survival": 0.611111, "best_return": 0.218182, "worst_return": -0.102564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009602, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.072829, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.106126, "worst_return": -0.095863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087644, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.161955, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.16285, "worst_return": -0.284007, 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479.933333, 475.27834, 471.512717, 471.986213 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 485.0, "volume": 60504, "typical_volume": 61249.5, "trend": 479.159729, "fair_value": 567.147041, "relative_strength": -14.19297, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.741047, "energy": 14.519549, "activity_lines": [ 480.666667, 477.741774, 473.363708, 472.22322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 470.0, "volume": 65061, "typical_volume": 58251.55, "trend": 477.293062, "fair_value": 566.495256, "relative_strength": -16.419932, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.716742, "energy": 7.45384, "activity_lines": [ 477.066667, 477.200858, 473.571842, 471.63227 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }