{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55a84230-2384-4d8b-8568-6ad85146f12f", "symbol": "NKE", "name": "NIKE, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.102, "architecture_energy": 50.831, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.508, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.99, "rotation_up": 23.62, "upward_expansion": 6.93, "deceleration": 57.46, "rotation_down": 53.12, "downward_expansion": 77.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 732.468677, 743.71328, 754.73755, 793.875886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 714.809998, "trend_reference": 866.87585, "distance_from_trend": -0.175418, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1377.764958, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.481181, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.556993, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.350182, "excess_performance": -0.295515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.175418, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133475, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.481181, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002708, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.32557, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.350182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.388293, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36285, "relative_activity": 1.660014, "balance": 0.388293, "dry_up": 0.629453, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067598, "annualized_volatility": 0.372954, "from_high_reference": -0.520495, "from_low_reference": 0.021143 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 866.87585, "fair_value_reference": 1377.764958, "structural_low": 700.01001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.010085, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.00165, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 0.154507, "worst_return": -0.214447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.076513, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024583, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.277832, "worst_return": -0.257102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.058081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.099082, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.133647, "worst_return": -0.369009, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.798833, "energy": 44.931595, "activity_lines": [ 754.59668, 758.751022, 767.393437, 815.727262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 725.01001, "volume": 7063, "typical_volume": 22477.35, "trend": 882.406285, "fair_value": 1384.937566, "relative_strength": -32.653319, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.577266, "energy": 46.940319, "activity_lines": [ 745.702682, 751.749464, 760.970818, 804.68855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 714.809998, "volume": 36285, "typical_volume": 21858.25, "trend": 866.87585, "fair_value": 1377.764958, "relative_strength": -32.556993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.102493, "energy": 50.830967, "activity_lines": [ 732.468677, 743.71328, 754.73755, 793.875886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }