{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55ab7582-2fa3-452f-9a33-9329786c88df", "symbol": "PDTC3", "name": "Padtec Holding S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.021, "architecture_energy": 71.77, "architecture_maturity": 8.085, "architecture_confidence": 84.857, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.39, "rotation_up": 70.12, "upward_expansion": 87.48, "deceleration": 47.66, "rotation_down": 13.85, "downward_expansion": 21.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.823333, 1.728909, 1.615857, 1.586258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.56, "trend_reference": 1.561667, "distance_from_trend": -0.001067, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.746796, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.941664, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103448, "excess_performance": -0.0464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078499, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083458, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.099417, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103448, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.87664, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 409000, "relative_activity": 2.35477, "balance": 1.87664, "dry_up": 2.851488, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120316, "annualized_volatility": 0.575321, "from_high_reference": -0.253589, "from_low_reference": 0.677419 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.561667, "fair_value_reference": 1.746796, "structural_low": 1.31, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008161, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.034966, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.101449, "worst_return": -0.178571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025317, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025136, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.115942, "worst_return": -0.387032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.17229, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.179275, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057971, "worst_return": -0.402551, "sufficient": false }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072265, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": 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44.974388, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.936506, "energy": 80.939047, "activity_lines": [ 1.707333, 1.583455, 1.529762, 1.527183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 426100, "typical_volume": 158445.0, "trend": 1.536667, "fair_value": 1.760231, "relative_strength": 44.672121, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.266424, "energy": 91.829232, "activity_lines": [ 1.852, 1.680364, 1.580857, 1.561957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.91, "volume": 306900, "typical_volume": 169850.0, "trend": 1.556667, "fair_value": 1.754447, "relative_strength": 30.97543, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.628584, "energy": 84.872425, "activity_lines": [ 1.910667, 1.740182, 1.616, 1.586043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.56, "volume": 409000, "typical_volume": 173690.0, "trend": 1.561667, "fair_value": 1.746796, "relative_strength": 9.941664, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.02079, "energy": 71.770461, "activity_lines": [ 1.823333, 1.728909, 1.615857, 1.586258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }