{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55ac6d23-24ce-4906-855a-911e725d8e58", "symbol": "DRD", "name": "DRDGOLD Limited ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.072, "architecture_energy": 49.685, "architecture_maturity": 58.808, "architecture_confidence": 93.456, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.59, "rotation_up": 26.77, "upward_expansion": 7.95, "deceleration": 58.82, "rotation_down": 50.6, "downward_expansion": 81.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.57, 21.675455, 23.52181, 25.407563 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 23.63, "trend_reference": 28.132124, "distance_from_trend": -0.160035, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.647591, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.510137, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.06283, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.276091, "excess_performance": -0.401716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160035, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.510137, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.56464, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.319075, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.276091, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.566588, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1415275, "relative_activity": 0.966481, "balance": 0.566588, "dry_up": 1.036578, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111438, "annualized_volatility": 0.619367, "from_high_reference": -0.393586, "from_low_reference": 0.66089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.132124, "fair_value_reference": 15.647591, "structural_low": 19.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.024272, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.025361, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.246869, "worst_return": -0.155154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049414, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.022534, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199946, "worst_return": -0.14158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.113707, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15374, "worst_return": -0.023689, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 21.112667, 22.348727, 24.784251, 26.777096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.94, "volume": 1691453, "typical_volume": 1531794.15, "trend": 28.711929, "fair_value": 15.482074, "relative_strength": -28.236054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.250207, "energy": 70.72414, "activity_lines": [ 20.850667, 21.894909, 24.242048, 26.24977 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.42, "volume": 1367221, "typical_volume": 1521024.45, "trend": 28.39228, "fair_value": 15.553525, "relative_strength": -30.952962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.346978, "energy": 63.006682, "activity_lines": [ 20.644, 21.443091, 23.705857, 25.714807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.63, "volume": 1415275, "typical_volume": 1464359.45, "trend": 28.132124, "fair_value": 15.647591, "relative_strength": -23.06283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.071765, "energy": 49.685033, "activity_lines": [ 21.57, 21.675455, 23.52181, 25.407563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }