{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55aef5f5-1d58-4ac3-8aba-557180ecc12f", "symbol": "AL2SI", "name": "2CRSI S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.909, "architecture_energy": 39.797, "architecture_maturity": 7.875, "architecture_confidence": 50.501, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.53, "rotation_up": 15.6, "upward_expansion": 21.88, "deceleration": 53.45, "rotation_down": 61.48, "downward_expansion": 49.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.066667, 29.290182, 34.087905, 33.054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.6, "trend_reference": 29.787667, "distance_from_trend": -0.073442, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.850268, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.801954, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 18.695887, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.857335, "excess_performance": 0.804024, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073442, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.307031, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.801954, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.747983, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.186959, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.435314, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.857335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.999447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1541164, "relative_activity": 1.045571, "balance": 0.999447, "dry_up": 1.50762, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.296293, "annualized_volatility": 1.360252, "from_high_reference": -0.485555, "from_low_reference": 2.876404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.787667, "fair_value_reference": 9.850268, "structural_low": 15.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.019205, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044537, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.187342, "worst_return": -0.185714, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.085, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.120051, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.253165, "worst_return": -0.199134, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2325, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.161686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.559494, "worst_return": -0.268429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.263415, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.680877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.253886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.851952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.293502, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.286855, "volume": 41516, "typical_volume": 114223.75, "trend": 1.672241, "fair_value": 2.969588, "relative_strength": -35.060626, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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34.497333, 38.848727, 37.513143, 33.284989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.700001, "volume": 2204026, "typical_volume": 1590762.95, "trend": 27.761667, "fair_value": 9.20151, "relative_strength": 45.977178, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.033418, "energy": 24.538731, "activity_lines": [ 32.137334, 37.14, 37.174619, 33.515978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.959999, "volume": 2884288, "typical_volume": 1511161.75, "trend": 28.218333, "fair_value": 9.358511, "relative_strength": 21.655946, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.551713, "energy": 26.736838, "activity_lines": [ 29.466667, 34.671273, 36.348238, 33.399742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.58, "volume": 2523116, "typical_volume": 1443719.65, "trend": 28.752333, "fair_value": 9.526258, "relative_strength": 26.67646, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.257368, "energy": 22.250729, "activity_lines": [ 28.933333, 32.730909, 35.677524, 33.358559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.66, "volume": 1940312, "typical_volume": 1449829.3, "trend": 29.228333, "fair_value": 9.681748, "relative_strength": 14.427551, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.137008, "energy": 42.265639, "activity_lines": [ 27.614667, 30.642909, 34.799286, 33.159054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.6, "volume": 1541164, "typical_volume": 1473992.0, "trend": 29.787667, "fair_value": 9.850268, "relative_strength": 18.695887, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.909011, "energy": 39.797316, "activity_lines": [ 27.066667, 29.290182, 34.087905, 33.054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }