{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55b074eb-6fd8-49b6-8811-5e5dd969bf97", "symbol": "OILT", "name": "TEXAS CAPITAL FUNDS TRUST TEXAS CAPITAL TEXAS OIL INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.7, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.642, "architecture_energy": 26.375, "architecture_maturity": 24.176, "architecture_confidence": 53.469, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.72, "rotation_up": 57.72, "upward_expansion": 54.43, "deceleration": 61.38, "rotation_down": 7.33, "downward_expansion": 21.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.685913, 29.014041, 29.287198, 29.452613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.2498, "trend_reference": 29.009095, "distance_from_trend": 0.008298, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.740816, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.771554, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108462, "excess_performance": -0.017163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008298, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072113, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182249, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025808, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007716, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108462, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102959, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9760, "relative_activity": 0.33592, "balance": 1.102959, "dry_up": 0.388752, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05526, "annualized_volatility": 0.309874, "from_high_reference": -0.147733, "from_low_reference": 0.38316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.009095, "fair_value_reference": 24.740816, "structural_low": 25.698145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02426, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.000217, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.08517, "worst_return": -0.014105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.103627, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106328, "worst_return": 0.100925, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044376, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044376, "worst_return": 0.044376, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.919242, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.03695, "energy": 34.948033, "activity_lines": [ 28.006886, 28.37383, 29.268322, 29.169135 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.3667, "volume": 13649, "typical_volume": 35043.65, "trend": 28.565023, "fair_value": 24.665739, "relative_strength": 8.274205, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.330711, "energy": 15.800992, "activity_lines": [ 28.879647, 28.636028, 29.311439, 29.302484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.4423, "volume": 13632, "typical_volume": 32716.05, "trend": 28.80007, "fair_value": 24.707903, "relative_strength": 7.073776, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.12489, "energy": 25.018729, "activity_lines": [ 29.58252, 28.928958, 29.356615, 29.423598 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.2498, "volume": 9760, "typical_volume": 29054.5, "trend": 29.009095, "fair_value": 24.740816, "relative_strength": -0.771554, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.641728, "energy": 26.375337, "activity_lines": [ 29.685913, 29.014041, 29.287198, 29.452613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }