{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55b66141-1599-4454-a367-9943ecc55315", "symbol": "300560", "name": "Zhong Fu Tong Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.347, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.736, "architecture_energy": 35.305, "architecture_maturity": 21.156, "architecture_confidence": 48.273, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.76, "rotation_up": 16.79, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 67.65, "rotation_down": 65.34, "downward_expansion": 41.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.47, 16.014727, 16.595, 16.494172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.469999, "trend_reference": 16.472333, "distance_from_trend": -0.000142, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.82022, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.014572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.08284, "excess_performance": 0.07544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031115, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.000146, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075375, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.08284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.461975, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 81423265, "relative_activity": 1.47678, "balance": 2.461975, "dry_up": 1.420811, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157629, "annualized_volatility": 0.772117, "from_high_reference": -0.334814, "from_low_reference": 0.448549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.472333, "fair_value_reference": 14.82022, "structural_low": 11.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016804, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.045791, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.045333, "worst_return": -0.038662, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.167391, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.088469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307333, "worst_return": 0.032234, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.027921, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.168627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053973, "worst_return": 0.00187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.047311, 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"2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00432, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.362845, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159065, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"relative_strength": 7.179937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.564534, "energy": 65.4138, "activity_lines": [ 19.507333, 18.858727, 17.685524, 17.241355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.01, "volume": 71972136, "typical_volume": 48922004.5, "trend": 16.762667, "fair_value": 14.882404, "relative_strength": -18.605825, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.042441, "energy": 8.483893, "activity_lines": [ 17.457333, 17.892546, 17.312333, 16.986279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.14, "volume": 86327260, "typical_volume": 51163159.35, "trend": 16.603, "fair_value": 14.852075, "relative_strength": -17.758589, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.632328, "energy": 23.090938, "activity_lines": [ 15.747333, 17.022182, 16.971333, 16.752559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.59, "volume": 73626885, "typical_volume": 52913922.6, "trend": 16.462, "fair_value": 14.820774, "relative_strength": -19.612099, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.882177, "energy": 41.442354, "activity_lines": [ 14.228, 16.124364, 16.591524, 16.493656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.469999, "volume": 81423265, "typical_volume": 55135689.85, "trend": 16.472333, "fair_value": 14.82022, "relative_strength": 0.014572, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.736108, "energy": 35.304594, "activity_lines": [ 14.47, 16.014727, 16.595, 16.494172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }