{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55c0c641-7447-4b5b-a36b-8f5e8111621e", "symbol": "OBD", "name": "Oxford BioDynamics Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.311, "architecture_energy": 49.233, "architecture_maturity": 79.649, "architecture_confidence": 92.566, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.63, "rotation_up": 22.89, "upward_expansion": 7.52, "deceleration": 58.3, "rotation_down": 54.6, "downward_expansion": 80.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001143, 0.001219, 0.001474, 0.001684 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.0011, "trend_reference": 0.001999, "distance_from_trend": -0.449633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.061296, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.982054, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -63.403292, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.607143, "excess_performance": -0.658378, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.449633, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172166, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.982054, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007109, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.634033, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128697, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.607143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.73586, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121087581, "relative_activity": 2.29643, "balance": 0.73586, "dry_up": 1.659919, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.356643, "annualized_volatility": 0.724179, "from_high_reference": -0.853333, "from_low_reference": 0.375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001999, "fair_value_reference": 0.061296, "structural_low": 0.0008, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 50, "median_return": -0.081898, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.68, "median_excess_return": -0.065302, "regime_survival": 0.92, "best_return": 2.508772, "worst_return": -0.586834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.209659, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.224747, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.090129, "worst_return": -0.738562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.305358, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.366301, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.271293, "worst_return": -0.885621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0011, "volume": 81695135, "typical_volume": 49629827.05, "trend": 0.002043, "fair_value": 0.062008, "relative_strength": -64.340038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.295089, "energy": 53.068075, "activity_lines": [ 0.001157, 0.001278, 0.001532, 0.001745 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0011, "volume": 121087581, "typical_volume": 52728611.0, "trend": 0.001999, "fair_value": 0.061296, "relative_strength": -63.403292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.311307, "energy": 49.233229, "activity_lines": [ 0.001143, 0.001219, 0.001474, 0.001684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }