{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55c1dd45-2768-4046-9606-16ad0c18e043", "symbol": "CRDO", "name": "Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.71, "architecture_energy": 22.308, "architecture_maturity": 68.706, "architecture_confidence": 93.903, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.31, "rotation_up": 29.34, "upward_expansion": 56.98, "deceleration": 88.05, "rotation_down": 27.67, "downward_expansion": 18.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.334, 231.237455, 221.530929, 199.965538 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 249.89, "trend_reference": 174.0315, "distance_from_trend": 0.435889, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.997436, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.085159, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 36.222331, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.243178, "excess_performance": 1.055724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.435889, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.183948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.085159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107565, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.362223, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.243178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.182132, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23818207, "relative_activity": 0.650366, "balance": 1.182132, "dry_up": 0.772205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.205886, "annualized_volatility": 0.928938, "from_high_reference": -0.19043, "from_low_reference": 1.889403 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 174.0315, "fair_value_reference": 80.997436, "structural_low": 86.485, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.092802, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.078702, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.11643, "worst_return": -0.265857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.177431, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.128062, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.747361, "worst_return": -0.143941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.327617, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21049, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.230065, "worst_return": 0.253873, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.961572, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.712951, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 3.383327, "worst_return": 0.539818, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.912919, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.160203, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.191311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.350329, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.536429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.206172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.184096, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.372748, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 213.15, "volume": 24431987, "typical_volume": 37606430.45, "trend": 168.590167, "fair_value": 78.266026, "relative_strength": 25.069981, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.793378, "energy": 24.948494, "activity_lines": [ 224.777333, 232.960727, 214.402405, 192.380118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 206.99, "volume": 32122113, "typical_volume": 37730860.4, "trend": 170.715833, "fair_value": 79.487436, "relative_strength": 19.811587, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.954905, "energy": 18.919243, "activity_lines": [ 216.872, 228.095273, 216.136429, 194.857527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 249.89, "volume": 23818207, "typical_volume": 36622768.35, "trend": 174.0315, "fair_value": 80.997436, "relative_strength": 36.222331, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.710009, "energy": 22.308462, "activity_lines": [ 225.334, 231.237455, 221.530929, 199.965538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }