{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55d2c048-ff5d-4d12-bad5-84b29d1fb01b", "symbol": "OCA", "name": "Oceania Healthcare Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.641, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 31.413, "architecture_energy": 33.2, "architecture_maturity": 18.238, "architecture_confidence": 75.735, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.71, "rotation_up": 55.5, "upward_expansion": 39.41, "deceleration": 26.5, "rotation_down": 17.52, "downward_expansion": 23.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.773, 0.762455, 0.7495, 0.750065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.805, "trend_reference": 0.7645, "distance_from_trend": 0.052976, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.719776, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118404, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.760251, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035928, "excess_performance": -0.064202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052976, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.118404, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.134194, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007603, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063527, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035928, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.322419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3461436, "relative_activity": 1.832418, "balance": 2.322419, "dry_up": 1.368192, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055423, "annualized_volatility": 0.259142, "from_high_reference": -0.134409, "from_low_reference": 0.298387 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7645, "fair_value_reference": 0.719776, "structural_low": 0.625, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.053371, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.036347, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.122449, "worst_return": -0.135135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.108108, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.095869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.224719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.120021, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.136277, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.269231, "worst_return": -0.241726, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042813, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053709, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.171429, "worst_return": -0.356111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070423, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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1540237, "typical_volume": 2020154.2, "trend": 0.773333, "fair_value": 0.71984, "relative_strength": -3.637369, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.648648, "energy": 7.294484, "activity_lines": [ 0.755, 0.752, 0.74081, 0.748849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.755, "volume": 2215087, "typical_volume": 1798439.7, "trend": 0.767833, "fair_value": 0.719679, "relative_strength": -4.419091, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.66098, "energy": 9.659039, "activity_lines": [ 0.756, 0.753091, 0.742762, 0.747667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.805, "volume": 3461436, "typical_volume": 1888999.3, "trend": 0.7645, "fair_value": 0.719776, "relative_strength": 0.760251, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.413119, "energy": 33.199913, "activity_lines": [ 0.773, 0.762455, 0.7495, 0.750065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }