{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55d574ad-6609-4922-9480-9ff8cc4ae796", "symbol": "XLVS", "name": "Invesco Health Care S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.454, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.127, "architecture_energy": 58.223, "architecture_maturity": 12.153, "architecture_confidence": 75.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.58, "rotation_up": 70.22, "upward_expansion": 84.62, "deceleration": 52.93, "rotation_down": 14.75, "downward_expansion": 8.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 809.666655, 800.969081, 776.394993, 765.841825 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 817.599976, "trend_reference": 759.203333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076918, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 701.088593, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.166186, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.674094, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.057082, "excess_performance": 0.005847, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076918, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014955, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.166186, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135298, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016741, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074766, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057082, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.864121, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19973, "relative_activity": 2.573509, "balance": 2.864121, "dry_up": 0.940439, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034924, "annualized_volatility": 0.167879, "from_high_reference": -0.023761, "from_low_reference": 0.28392 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 759.203333, "fair_value_reference": 701.088593, "structural_low": 700.099976, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.000467, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": -0.01787, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.068946, "worst_return": -0.092421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036167, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.028814, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.104921, "worst_return": -0.075442, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04914, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.022263, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.07418, "worst_return": -0.062943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": 2.249308, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.035937, "energy": 80.727099, "activity_lines": [ 805.039998, 789.285451, 764.921189, 758.848387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 805.099976, "volume": 3559, "typical_volume": 6887.85, "trend": 757.830001, "fair_value": 699.981029, "relative_strength": 0.562686, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.927964, "energy": 67.069894, "activity_lines": [ 805.646659, 794.587266, 770.214996, 761.985697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 817.599976, "volume": 19973, "typical_volume": 7761.0, "trend": 759.203333, "fair_value": 701.088593, "relative_strength": 1.674094, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.127018, "energy": 58.223322, "activity_lines": [ 809.666655, 800.969081, 776.394993, 765.841825 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }