{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55d58cf9-6ad7-46ac-b3d2-b3ac3eb4d992", "symbol": "ERIC-A", "name": "Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.148, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.75, "architecture_energy": 64.743, "architecture_maturity": 9.538, "architecture_confidence": 69.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.66, "rotation_up": 16.22, "upward_expansion": 22.46, "deceleration": 43.27, "rotation_down": 70.31, "downward_expansion": 61.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 96.14, 100.656364, 106.440994, 106.676295 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 97.900002, "trend_reference": 105.181571, "distance_from_trend": -0.069229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 76.459656, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.659683, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018669, "excess_performance": -0.080164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280414, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.086597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.228666, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.923962, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 174138, "relative_activity": 1.295574, "balance": 0.923962, "dry_up": 1.354626, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083209, "annualized_volatility": 0.336929, "from_high_reference": -0.232759, "from_low_reference": 0.393582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.181571, "fair_value_reference": 76.459656, "structural_low": 90.800003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.116367, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.048839, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132312, "worst_return": -0.092857, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057038, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14624, "worst_return": -0.076441, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001081, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.080718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.11241, "worst_return": -0.090872, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.962416, "energy": 24.917367, "activity_lines": [ 108.933335, 112.781819, 111.992858, 109.167331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 95.800003, "volume": 286942, "typical_volume": 140880.7, "trend": 104.44267, "fair_value": 75.616009, "relative_strength": -5.546603, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.473518, "energy": 36.843661, "activity_lines": [ 104.186669, 109.34182, 110.627579, 108.624114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 91.599998, "volume": 151589, "typical_volume": 141436.0, "trend": 104.548475, "fair_value": 75.873285, "relative_strength": -11.280848, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.805103, "energy": 56.813768, "activity_lines": [ 99.426668, 105.392728, 108.899947, 107.795555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 94.099998, "volume": 115632, "typical_volume": 138979.3, "trend": 104.800047, "fair_value": 76.153435, "relative_strength": -10.305222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.283469, "energy": 63.098359, "activity_lines": [ 96.713333, 102.385455, 107.458667, 107.121459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.900002, "volume": 174138, "typical_volume": 134409.95, "trend": 105.181571, "fair_value": 76.459656, "relative_strength": -8.659683, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.749633, "energy": 64.742523, "activity_lines": [ 96.14, 100.656364, 106.440994, 106.676295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }