{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55d6f441-4efe-41c8-880a-94c2642bc470", "symbol": "EXL", "name": "Elixinol Wellness Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.691, "architecture_energy": 24.912, "architecture_maturity": 38.353, "architecture_confidence": 80.491, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.91, "rotation_up": 20.46, "upward_expansion": 6.31, "deceleration": 54.87, "rotation_down": 45.66, "downward_expansion": 70.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006518, 0.007131, 0.007489 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.006, "trend_reference": 0.008183, "distance_from_trend": -0.266802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.030242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.801599, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -43.620657, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.4, "excess_performance": -0.463706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.266802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.801599, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.436207, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012555, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.102798, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 693812, "relative_activity": 0.061061, "balance": 1.102798, "dry_up": 0.078149, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.512821, "annualized_volatility": 1.671483, "from_high_reference": -0.727273, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.008183, "fair_value_reference": 0.030242, "structural_low": 0.006, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 52, "median_return": -0.105556, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.634615, "median_excess_return": -0.099303, "regime_survival": 0.903846, "best_return": 1.500013, "worst_return": -0.464286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.222222, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.222493, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.714292, "worst_return": -0.65625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.448741, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.439941, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.166676, "worst_return": -0.625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.708333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194444, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.46875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { 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-55.731606, "energy": 46.470634, "activity_lines": [ 0.006767, 0.007509, 0.007752, 0.008175 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.006, "volume": 5131904, "typical_volume": 11914840.25, "trend": 0.0086, "fair_value": 0.032069, "relative_strength": -45.472585, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.185794, "energy": 50.337078, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.007155, 0.00756, 0.007999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.006, "volume": 245602, "typical_volume": 11802979.0, "trend": 0.0085, "fair_value": 0.031589, "relative_strength": -44.535039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.264772, "energy": 44.2901, "activity_lines": [ 0.006167, 0.006818, 0.007386, 0.007831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.007, "volume": 2293289, "typical_volume": 11878658.0, "trend": 0.008433, "fair_value": 0.031116, "relative_strength": -33.541929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.626901, "energy": 30.087307, "activity_lines": [ 0.0064, 0.006682, 0.007321, 0.007734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.007, "volume": 319222, "typical_volume": 11699576.05, "trend": 0.008367, "fair_value": 0.030682, "relative_strength": -33.425418, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.336292, "energy": 24.823676, "activity_lines": [ 0.006633, 0.006691, 0.007271, 0.007642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.006, "volume": 693812, "typical_volume": 11362660.45, "trend": 0.008183, "fair_value": 0.030242, "relative_strength": -43.620657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.691404, "energy": 24.912365, "activity_lines": [ 0.006467, 0.006518, 0.007131, 0.007489 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }