{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55d85cfb-2642-4534-a2fd-bf5e3d7e563c", "symbol": "RBLX", "name": "Roblox\u00a0Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.659, "architecture_energy": 68.786, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.29, "rotation_up": 15.48, "upward_expansion": 18.77, "deceleration": 32.38, "rotation_down": 69.06, "downward_expansion": 85.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.180667, 45.870545, 47.008952, 49.670645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 37.79, "trend_reference": 54.718667, "distance_from_trend": -0.309376, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.816154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378619, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.523056, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.431045, "excess_performance": -0.55667, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.309376, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378619, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074767, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.575231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025142, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.431045, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.057302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 94211816, "relative_activity": 1.682493, "balance": 1.057302, "dry_up": 1.209621, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187585, "annualized_volatility": 0.784716, "from_high_reference": -0.733873, "from_low_reference": 0.115407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.718667, "fair_value_reference": 60.816154, "structural_low": 33.88, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.061034, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.012756, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.322617, "worst_return": -0.317254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.233739, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.183402, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.623551, "worst_return": -0.36378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.478449, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.34084, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.559796, "worst_return": -0.421552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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53.466796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 51.68, "volume": 34203811, "typical_volume": 50771112.45, "trend": 58.568667, "fair_value": 60.721923, "relative_strength": -43.666381, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.849407, "energy": 15.574595, "activity_lines": [ 52.845333, 50.268727, 49.999667, 52.95729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.55, "volume": 30960231, "typical_volume": 50357901.4, "trend": 57.413, "fair_value": 60.777179, "relative_strength": -46.833469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.132419, "energy": 16.972629, "activity_lines": [ 51.26, 50.099273, 49.60819, 52.246409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.6, "volume": 111556791, "typical_volume": 53492416.7, "trend": 55.901333, "fair_value": 60.765128, "relative_strength": -59.628026, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.420474, "energy": 40.094028, "activity_lines": [ 45.956667, 47.671636, 48.154714, 50.839118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.79, "volume": 94211816, "typical_volume": 55995370.3, "trend": 54.718667, "fair_value": 60.816154, "relative_strength": -57.523056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.658848, "energy": 68.786152, "activity_lines": [ 42.180667, 45.870545, 47.008952, 49.670645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }