{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55daed8a-9ba8-4a08-abb1-403938cac9d2", "symbol": "002742", "name": "Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.208, "architecture_energy": 31.908, "architecture_maturity": 44.809, "architecture_confidence": 61.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.63, "rotation_up": 25.86, "upward_expansion": 17.89, "deceleration": 63.06, "rotation_down": 39.31, "downward_expansion": 63.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.674, 3.640364, 3.918476, 4.071849 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.13, "trend_reference": 4.216, "distance_from_trend": -0.020398, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.799487, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.086989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.457556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029925, "excess_performance": 0.022525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080346, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.086989, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.248927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114576, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029925, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261518, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70190854, "relative_activity": 1.72476, "balance": 0.261518, "dry_up": 1.306823, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112684, "annualized_volatility": 0.49051, "from_high_reference": -0.321839, "from_low_reference": 0.298742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.216, "fair_value_reference": 3.799487, "structural_low": 3.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.481481, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": 0.002358, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.267016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005236, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.031157, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.64497, "worst_return": -0.444079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162932, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.185744, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.497041, "worst_return": -0.46519, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.799745, "energy": 71.309992, "activity_lines": [ 3.557333, 3.738545, 4.086381, 4.195269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.27, "volume": 48283136, "typical_volume": 37886281.9, "trend": 4.267667, "fair_value": 3.79891, "relative_strength": -28.732183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.461636, "energy": 55.405027, "activity_lines": [ 3.466667, 3.615818, 3.990286, 4.127763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.5, "volume": 39836799, "typical_volume": 38329774.35, "trend": 4.229, "fair_value": 3.798269, "relative_strength": -21.753655, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.729471, "energy": 48.096822, "activity_lines": [ 3.473333, 3.562182, 3.92181, 4.078237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.13, "volume": 70190854, "typical_volume": 40696022.5, "trend": 4.216, "fair_value": 3.799487, "relative_strength": -11.457556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.207529, "energy": 31.908091, "activity_lines": [ 3.674, 3.640364, 3.918476, 4.071849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }