{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55e7aac6-d1f2-418b-bdae-074b73718b0d", "symbol": "600469", "name": "Aeolus Tyre Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.618, "architecture_energy": 55.74, "architecture_maturity": 54.027, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 26.76, "upward_expansion": 9.99, "deceleration": 52.68, "rotation_down": 50.04, "downward_expansion": 80.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.296667, 5.346545, 5.642045, 5.956114 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.37, "trend_reference": 6.344679, "distance_from_trend": -0.153621, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.929612, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.094376, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.53202, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.286853, "excess_performance": -0.243649, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153621, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.094376, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.15532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088465, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.286853, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431998, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35357749, "relative_activity": 0.897445, "balance": 0.431998, "dry_up": 0.854886, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067034, "annualized_volatility": 0.314354, "from_high_reference": -0.346715, "from_low_reference": 0.074 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.344679, "fair_value_reference": 5.929612, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.008157, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008059, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.425197, "worst_return": -0.136964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.085009, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.02809, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268041, "worst_return": -0.104139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045336, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068415, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.148584, "worst_return": 0.028827, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-17.288691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.034292, "energy": 75.380994, "activity_lines": [ 5.41, 5.591302, 5.97729, 6.263601 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.42, "volume": 33035449, "typical_volume": 43455943.05, "trend": 6.508679, "fair_value": 5.947736, "relative_strength": -11.695008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.176294, "energy": 71.859862, "activity_lines": [ 5.398, 5.524209, 5.890717, 6.190676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.04, "volume": 35712371, "typical_volume": 41904121.4, "trend": 6.450012, "fair_value": 5.94114, "relative_strength": -18.684117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.224767, "energy": 65.857413, "activity_lines": [ 5.276667, 5.408012, 5.77843, 6.095922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.31, "volume": 30618476, "typical_volume": 40307940.2, "trend": 6.397012, "fair_value": 5.935062, "relative_strength": -14.441356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.884004, "energy": 59.49904, "activity_lines": [ 5.282, 5.364942, 5.702571, 6.022373 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.37, "volume": 35357749, "typical_volume": 39398231.5, "trend": 6.344679, "fair_value": 5.929612, "relative_strength": -15.53202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.617715, "energy": 55.739801, "activity_lines": [ 5.296667, 5.346545, 5.642045, 5.956114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }