{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55e8a7f2-730a-4817-bb6d-5df0f1c6eb60", "symbol": "XHB", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.973, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 11.975, "architecture_energy": 9.462, "architecture_maturity": 23.896, "architecture_confidence": 52.225, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.44, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 32.23, "deceleration": 65.98, "rotation_down": 35.99, "downward_expansion": 20.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 107.946, 108.9883, 107.166684, 106.58783 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 110.8, "trend_reference": 107.258409, "distance_from_trend": 0.033019, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 102.508221, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080889, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.716524, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053717, "excess_performance": -0.179341, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033019, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05735, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087165, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055799, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.752054, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10540246, "relative_activity": 0.898043, "balance": 1.752054, "dry_up": 0.945569, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057249, "annualized_volatility": 0.280737, "from_high_reference": -0.098752, "from_low_reference": 0.185875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.258409, "fair_value_reference": 102.508221, "structural_low": 93.433123, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.033101, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": 0.019291, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.084171, "worst_return": -0.1034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043193, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010339, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.151063, "worst_return": -0.14605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.085084, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.017662, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116988, "worst_return": -0.172196, 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"relative_strength": -9.408881, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.958218, "energy": 50.03951, "activity_lines": [ 111.293183, 108.473098, 105.961296, 106.449907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 108.25, "volume": 10499456, "typical_volume": 11789624.75, "trend": 107.235532, "fair_value": 102.019613, "relative_strength": -8.103482, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.396926, "energy": 36.489041, "activity_lines": [ 110.368504, 108.893798, 106.292502, 106.522931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 108.44, "volume": 10349356, "typical_volume": 11699141.55, "trend": 107.355914, "fair_value": 102.183838, "relative_strength": -7.156582, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.181886, "energy": 17.887502, "activity_lines": [ 109.452667, 109.241954, 106.67472, 106.600638 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.69, "volume": 13003161, "typical_volume": 11723509.1, "trend": 107.332607, "fair_value": 102.321261, "relative_strength": -11.871758, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.014298, "energy": 9.507358, "activity_lines": [ 107.116, 108.503548, 106.590023, 106.364128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.8, "volume": 10540246, "typical_volume": 11736906.0, "trend": 107.258409, "fair_value": 102.508221, "relative_strength": -8.716524, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.975324, "energy": 9.461891, "activity_lines": [ 107.946, 108.9883, 107.166684, 106.58783 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }