{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55ec2124-ad00-4e7a-8406-07f56d0b08aa", "symbol": "2612", "name": "Chinese Maritime Transport Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.138, "architecture_energy": 16.404, "architecture_maturity": 28.747, "architecture_confidence": 76.039, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.36, "rotation_up": 23.31, "upward_expansion": 14.53, "deceleration": 40.33, "rotation_down": 34.22, "downward_expansion": 59.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 53.293333, 53.156363, 53.64727, 54.129834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 53.799999, "trend_reference": 55.137417, "distance_from_trend": -0.024256, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 45.574754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180478, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.316905, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.066234, "excess_performance": -0.507606, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024256, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019546, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180478, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.303169, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014269, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066234, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.364881, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1126190, "relative_activity": 0.465778, "balance": 1.364881, "dry_up": 0.594315, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05819, "annualized_volatility": 0.346957, "from_high_reference": -0.288389, "from_low_reference": 0.161633 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 55.137417, "fair_value_reference": 45.574754, "structural_low": 49.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.005092, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.009381, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.212121, "worst_return": -0.223881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044443, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.125461, "worst_return": -0.17815, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.019897, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.013593, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.08343, "worst_return": -0.285103, "sufficient": false }, { 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"relative_strength": -31.251567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.832582, "energy": 52.353074, "activity_lines": [ 52.773333, 53.588212, 53.939221, 54.720582 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.900002, "volume": 1227831, "typical_volume": 2914224.05, "trend": 55.572235, "fair_value": 45.248318, "relative_strength": -30.190132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.178998, "energy": 37.903087, "activity_lines": [ 52.773334, 53.401318, 53.80448, 54.537831 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.099998, "volume": 1546482, "typical_volume": 2641286.0, "trend": 55.358237, "fair_value": 45.357437, "relative_strength": -30.972671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.325131, "energy": 44.239626, "activity_lines": [ 52.226666, 52.885455, 53.530844, 54.2493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.0, "volume": 1847400, "typical_volume": 2472798.75, "trend": 55.293477, "fair_value": 45.469077, "relative_strength": -26.939531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.702352, "energy": 24.629186, "activity_lines": [ 53.006667, 53.125455, 53.647758, 54.226187 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 53.799999, "volume": 1126190, "typical_volume": 2417867.6, "trend": 55.137417, "fair_value": 45.574754, "relative_strength": -30.316905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.13837, "energy": 16.403932, "activity_lines": [ 53.293333, 53.156363, 53.64727, 54.129834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }