{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55eec0a9-aec5-45d0-9938-573284b28554", "symbol": "IJAN", "name": "INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.058, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.683, "architecture_energy": 74.231, "architecture_maturity": 33.443, "architecture_confidence": 73.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.6, "rotation_up": 71.51, "upward_expansion": 90.16, "deceleration": 45.74, "rotation_down": 16.99, "downward_expansion": 14.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.512567, 38.306907, 38.004144, 37.702836 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 39.0106, "trend_reference": 37.40075, "distance_from_trend": 0.043043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.997579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.182226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.969442, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0453, "excess_performance": -0.080325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043043, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020078, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.182226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015902, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010673, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0453, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.959514, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30241, "relative_activity": 0.293679, "balance": 1.959514, "dry_up": 0.40405, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.012769, "annualized_volatility": 0.087225, "from_high_reference": -0.006353, "from_low_reference": 0.134029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.40075, "fair_value_reference": 32.997579, "structural_low": 35.44, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.007744, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.012375, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.054599, "worst_return": -0.037836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.023994, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.045768, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.053288, "worst_return": -0.062267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061614, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.068466, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.10956, "worst_return": -0.035505, "sufficient": true }, { 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-3.162018, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.436679, "energy": 54.795139, "activity_lines": [ 38.096007, 38.021262, 37.748674, 37.511951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.5196, "volume": 40064, "typical_volume": 105255.1, "trend": 37.322397, "fair_value": 32.933281, "relative_strength": -3.025395, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.232163, "energy": 56.518342, "activity_lines": [ 38.24594, 38.127084, 37.858765, 37.59392 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.0106, "volume": 30241, "typical_volume": 102972.95, "trend": 37.40075, "fair_value": 32.997579, "relative_strength": -4.969442, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.68301, "energy": 74.231341, "activity_lines": [ 38.512567, 38.306907, 38.004144, 37.702836 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }