{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55fa99d6-c450-4837-b486-ffd362edb1ca", "symbol": "FTCI", "name": "FTC Solar Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.81, "architecture_energy": 79.755, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.717, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.59, "rotation_up": 8.53, "upward_expansion": 17.41, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 77.26, "downward_expansion": 90.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.103333, 3.777636, 4.228762, 4.581118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.72, "trend_reference": 5.629333, "distance_from_trend": -0.516817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.093853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.553649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -66.0456, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.713684, "excess_performance": -0.901138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.516817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263417, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.553649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086407, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.660456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.713684, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.542284, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1477926, "relative_activity": 1.786924, "balance": 0.542284, "dry_up": 1.491589, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.378787, "annualized_volatility": 1.177082, "from_high_reference": -0.786667, "from_low_reference": 0.058366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.629333, "fair_value_reference": 6.093853, "structural_low": 2.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.097015, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.020447, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.697796, "worst_return": -0.664046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.062741, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.043035, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.761538, "worst_return": -0.531067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.150396, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.24905, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.734615, "worst_return": -0.689085, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.37, "volume": 539000, "typical_volume": 759482.75, "trend": 6.770333, "fair_value": 6.855519, "relative_strength": -35.473088, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.931128, "energy": 14.161707, "activity_lines": [ 5.054667, 4.972, 4.806476, 5.434516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.85, "volume": 759146, "typical_volume": 764507.1, "trend": 6.550667, "fair_value": 6.646224, "relative_strength": -51.44532, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.401416, "energy": 29.586845, "activity_lines": [ 4.696667, 4.781273, 4.719333, 5.246108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 1418782, "typical_volume": 756426.8, "trend": 6.251333, "fair_value": 6.429301, "relative_strength": -61.689798, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.778856, "energy": 45.737, "activity_lines": [ 4.073333, 4.438545, 4.563571, 5.014452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.75, "volume": 1278789, "typical_volume": 778659.9, "trend": 5.935333, "fair_value": 6.224494, "relative_strength": -64.185122, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.328376, "energy": 68.170052, "activity_lines": [ 3.525333, 4.090909, 4.393524, 4.788559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.72, "volume": 1477926, "typical_volume": 827078.35, "trend": 5.629333, "fair_value": 6.093853, "relative_strength": -66.0456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.809663, "energy": 79.754929, "activity_lines": [ 3.103333, 3.777636, 4.228762, 4.581118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }