{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55ff41d6-7eed-4b31-a6c2-8b7605b88be5", "symbol": "300931", "name": "General Elevator Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.439, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.217, "architecture_energy": 47.098, "architecture_maturity": 11.323, "architecture_confidence": 80.044, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.24, "rotation_up": 19.41, "upward_expansion": 26.68, "deceleration": 49.56, "rotation_down": 66.33, "downward_expansion": 47.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.699333, 13.202182, 14.150667, 14.001656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.95, "trend_reference": 13.526333, "distance_from_trend": -0.116538, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.591653, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390885, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.515938, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.095325, "excess_performance": 0.087926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.116538, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390885, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.553823, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.045159, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.095325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.646881, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21120537, "relative_activity": 0.682578, "balance": 0.646881, "dry_up": 1.041875, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182041, "annualized_volatility": 0.627264, "from_high_reference": -0.333891, "from_low_reference": 0.443237 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.526333, "fair_value_reference": 8.591653, "structural_low": 9.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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24.362356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.715564, "energy": 42.407598, "activity_lines": [ 16.162667, 15.936364, 15.275143, 14.516409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.13, "volume": 31865889, "typical_volume": 31831301.5, "trend": 13.543333, "fair_value": 8.527467, "relative_strength": 9.829532, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.665514, "energy": 15.38514, "activity_lines": [ 15.260667, 15.427818, 15.138095, 14.495075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.64, "volume": 43738846, "typical_volume": 31616931.25, "trend": 13.527667, "fair_value": 8.547545, "relative_strength": -11.511953, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.355273, "energy": 18.998114, "activity_lines": [ 13.59, 14.51, 14.765429, 14.307763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.33, "volume": 32226856, "typical_volume": 31330940.05, "trend": 13.497, "fair_value": 8.564817, "relative_strength": -12.897337, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.329577, "energy": 44.488272, "activity_lines": [ 12.19, 13.651091, 14.374952, 14.101462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 21120537, "typical_volume": 30942307.45, "trend": 13.526333, "fair_value": 8.591653, "relative_strength": -4.515938, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.217173, "energy": 47.098265, "activity_lines": [ 11.699333, 13.202182, 14.150667, 14.001656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }