{ "ticker": { "uuid": "55ffd8da-07c8-4f9d-861c-41a738ea909d", "symbol": "TPB", "name": "Turning Point Brands Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.146, "architecture_energy": 38.758, "architecture_maturity": 36.326, "architecture_confidence": 91.276, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.02, "rotation_up": 18.4, "upward_expansion": 7.3, "deceleration": 44.1, "rotation_down": 54.25, "downward_expansion": 75.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 80.962, 82.364996, 83.657596, 86.770822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 86.86, "trend_reference": 94.318188, "distance_from_trend": -0.079075, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 61.277186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.079861, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.33041, "excess_performance": -0.456035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079075, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068896, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244041, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200799, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.33041, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2628061, "relative_activity": 1.187319, "balance": 0.730369, "dry_up": 0.890984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100742, "annualized_volatility": 0.743478, "from_high_reference": -0.407579, "from_low_reference": 0.321348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 94.318188, "fair_value_reference": 61.277186, "structural_low": 65.735883, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.016784, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.008771, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.133707, "worst_return": -0.209333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.09745, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.090033, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.068241, "worst_return": -0.205522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.182261, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.103373, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.601262, "worst_return": -0.263311, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.738109, "energy": 23.392859, "activity_lines": [ 85.971971, 85.977746, 85.587391, 91.048888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.84, "volume": 1292077, "typical_volume": 2340191.25, "trend": 97.262013, "fair_value": 60.222977, "relative_strength": -21.700142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.922644, "energy": 19.971931, "activity_lines": [ 85.245333, 85.237446, 85.117289, 90.062154 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.12, "volume": 2180055, "typical_volume": 2220655.75, "trend": 96.262133, "fair_value": 60.561664, "relative_strength": -27.423211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.817782, "energy": 37.917212, "activity_lines": [ 82.254, 83.466037, 84.263796, 88.698153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.61, "volume": 1788368, "typical_volume": 2208370.3, "trend": 95.081502, "fair_value": 60.88098, "relative_strength": -29.334155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.307182, "energy": 51.556099, "activity_lines": [ 79.152667, 81.662859, 83.339657, 87.301241 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.86, "volume": 2628061, "typical_volume": 2213441.9, "trend": 94.318188, "fair_value": 61.277186, "relative_strength": -20.079861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.145928, "energy": 38.757679, "activity_lines": [ 80.962, 82.364996, 83.657596, 86.770822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }