{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5601d51a-f016-4e59-a81d-ab9891b2ffb7", "symbol": "CRL", "name": "Carel Industries S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.47, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.863, "architecture_energy": 18.481, "architecture_maturity": 67.43, "architecture_confidence": 79.289, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.87, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 48.07, "deceleration": 84.96, "rotation_down": 39.12, "downward_expansion": 28.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.45, 28.253308, 28.532975, 27.399891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.6, "trend_reference": 25.834582, "distance_from_trend": 0.068335, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.495312, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.284001, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.33167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.339806, "excess_performance": 0.168914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068335, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.284001, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012705, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.043317, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.339806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.317302, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 952835, "relative_activity": 1.441299, "balance": 4.317302, "dry_up": 0.855109, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081801, "annualized_volatility": 0.388127, "from_high_reference": -0.155578, "from_low_reference": 0.408163 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.834582, "fair_value_reference": 21.495312, "structural_low": 19.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.005682, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": -0.022037, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.165501, "worst_return": -0.123016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062984, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.002656, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.251348, "worst_return": -0.283398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.045426, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039528, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.241299, "worst_return": -0.219587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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29.597863, 29.826028, 28.385832, 26.927418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 28.049999, "volume": 282209, "typical_volume": 629927.45, "trend": 25.554582, "fair_value": 21.43956, "relative_strength": -0.024923, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.197508, "energy": 30.180118, "activity_lines": [ 29.080333, 29.505558, 28.519939, 27.095832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.1, "volume": 322468, "typical_volume": 632253.45, "trend": 25.641249, "fair_value": 21.454951, "relative_strength": -3.063285, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.628632, "energy": 20.186776, "activity_lines": [ 28.323333, 29.0009, 28.540475, 27.195536 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.950001, "volume": 703720, "typical_volume": 639491.55, "trend": 25.741249, "fair_value": 21.470297, "relative_strength": -4.147021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.027432, "energy": 21.58138, "activity_lines": [ 27.686667, 28.531682, 28.51744, 27.279972 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.6, "volume": 952835, "typical_volume": 661094.45, "trend": 25.834582, "fair_value": 21.495312, "relative_strength": -4.33167, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.863076, "energy": 18.481351, "activity_lines": [ 27.45, 28.253308, 28.532975, 27.399891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }