{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5602af3e-a79e-466e-9981-00be6566a14c", "symbol": "ICHO", "name": "Israel Canada Hotels Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.254, "architecture_energy": 22.677, "architecture_maturity": 16.684, "architecture_confidence": 80.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.87, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 5.73, "deceleration": 47.78, "rotation_down": 46.6, "downward_expansion": 69.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.001867, 1.015436, 1.019833, 1.024852 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.014, "trend_reference": 1.0389, "distance_from_trend": -0.023968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.930583, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.089639, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.062303, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.154295, "excess_performance": -0.183196, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043869, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.089639, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160871, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150623, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06496, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154295, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.877698, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1090927, "relative_activity": 1.923392, "balance": 1.877698, "dry_up": 0.907568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116295, "annualized_volatility": 0.476143, "from_high_reference": -0.330693, "from_low_reference": 0.183197 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.0389, "fair_value_reference": 0.930583, "structural_low": 0.857, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.008357, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.007476, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.262327, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.146768, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07894, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.568038, "worst_return": -0.470543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.014699, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.078232, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.406282, "worst_return": -0.435348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042395, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.259482, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.503577, "worst_return": -0.466718, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.12959, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109422, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063478, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069531, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072907, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.129252, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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0.921487, "relative_strength": -7.518099, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.330269, "energy": 21.045908, "activity_lines": [ 1.062, 1.032418, 1.029986, 1.037447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.035, "volume": 378117, "typical_volume": 566706.9, "trend": 1.046367, "fair_value": 0.923987, "relative_strength": -14.959211, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.377593, "energy": 12.47732, "activity_lines": [ 1.0588, 1.032327, 1.030971, 1.036587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.952, "volume": 212818, "typical_volume": 544056.6, "trend": 1.0421, "fair_value": 0.926083, "relative_strength": -23.16388, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.219925, "energy": 16.358705, "activity_lines": [ 1.023667, 1.018836, 1.023943, 1.030499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.98, "volume": 377189, "typical_volume": 536806.2, "trend": 1.039433, "fair_value": 0.928353, "relative_strength": -18.198788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.280914, "energy": 19.132011, "activity_lines": [ 1.006467, 1.013291, 1.020124, 1.026492 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.014, "volume": 1090927, "typical_volume": 567189.0, "trend": 1.0389, "fair_value": 0.930583, "relative_strength": -15.062303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.25364, "energy": 22.676504, "activity_lines": [ 1.001867, 1.015436, 1.019833, 1.024852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }