{ "ticker": { "uuid": "560484eb-ae70-41f8-b332-070651d29ca4", "symbol": "CAT31", "name": "Caisse Regionale de Credit Agricole Mutuel Toulouse 31", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.434, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.051, "architecture_energy": 27.653, "architecture_maturity": 40.458, "architecture_confidence": 87.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.77, "rotation_up": 14.08, "upward_expansion": 43.76, "deceleration": 82.32, "rotation_down": 51.54, "downward_expansion": 40.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.984001, 126.54691, 129.549175, 126.011636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 121.720001, "trend_reference": 121.279509, "distance_from_trend": 0.003632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 82.697538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.47187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.985242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.10965, "excess_performance": 0.056339, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.47187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019852, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.10965, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.551942, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 847, "relative_activity": 0.27294, "balance": 1.551942, "dry_up": 0.762265, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064461, "annualized_volatility": 0.250897, "from_high_reference": -0.188533, "from_low_reference": 0.297437 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 121.279509, "fair_value_reference": 82.697538, "structural_low": 101.513444, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.000729, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.000115, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.114815, "worst_return": -0.097083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.006119, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021136, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.290962, "worst_return": -0.138375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02874, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.04478, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.479345, "worst_return": -0.079269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"trend": 120.278223, "fair_value": 81.869743, "relative_strength": 0.974014, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.18593, "energy": 22.840238, "activity_lines": [ 124.990666, 131.221091, 130.454277, 125.900462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 121.160004, "volume": 4551, "typical_volume": 3171.45, "trend": 120.878584, "fair_value": 82.279606, "relative_strength": 0.159244, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.52884, "energy": 26.294844, "activity_lines": [ 123.110667, 128.67091, 130.013177, 125.957351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.720001, "volume": 847, "typical_volume": 3103.25, "trend": 121.279509, "fair_value": 82.697538, "relative_strength": -1.985242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.051436, "energy": 27.652673, "activity_lines": [ 121.984001, 126.54691, 129.549175, 126.011636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }