{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56072e29-1005-4427-aec6-5a433dbee512", "symbol": "BOAT", "name": "Nimbus Group AB (Publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.999, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.379, "architecture_energy": 56.976, "architecture_maturity": 10.368, "architecture_confidence": 91.859, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.16, "rotation_up": 13.62, "upward_expansion": 12.37, "deceleration": 38.64, "rotation_down": 64.3, "downward_expansion": 88.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.456667, 11.789091, 12.208571, 12.449785 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 12.62, "distance_from_trend": -0.104596, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.041218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373656, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.182882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042373, "excess_performance": -0.103867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.373656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201829, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042373, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.099389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19905, "relative_activity": 0.266478, "balance": 1.099389, "dry_up": 0.459047, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10211, "annualized_volatility": 0.453425, "from_high_reference": -0.28254, "from_low_reference": 0.13 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.62, "fair_value_reference": 18.041218, "structural_low": 10.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.024511, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.028566, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.30394, "worst_return": -0.303448, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.00303, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.114093, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.466258, "worst_return": -0.289199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.039007, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.222085, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.04253, "worst_return": -0.211905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 2278, "typical_volume": 87278.25, "trend": 12.471667, "fair_value": 18.613333, "relative_strength": -16.166791, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.1855, "energy": 7.224704, "activity_lines": [ 12.57, 12.63, 12.807619, 12.780215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.45, "volume": 77655, "typical_volume": 90241.45, "trend": 12.515, "fair_value": 18.4925, "relative_strength": -18.800963, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.704123, "energy": 32.886849, "activity_lines": [ 12.106667, 12.412727, 12.662143, 12.714301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 62581, "typical_volume": 89249.1, "trend": 12.558333, "fair_value": 18.388654, "relative_strength": -13.390266, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.275126, "energy": 35.338087, "activity_lines": [ 11.986667, 12.317273, 12.577857, 12.681075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.5, "volume": 37183, "typical_volume": 90134.65, "trend": 12.576667, "fair_value": 18.269744, "relative_strength": -17.594634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.128877, "energy": 43.536364, "activity_lines": [ 11.763333, 12.146364, 12.456429, 12.612796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.35, "volume": 17488, "typical_volume": 86591.15, "trend": 12.6, "fair_value": 18.150833, "relative_strength": -18.959636, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.529154, "energy": 59.86961, "activity_lines": [ 11.59, 11.968182, 12.331667, 12.533656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 19905, "typical_volume": 74696.55, "trend": 12.62, "fair_value": 18.041218, "relative_strength": -20.182882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.379037, "energy": 56.975649, "activity_lines": [ 11.456667, 11.789091, 12.208571, 12.449785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }