{ "ticker": { "uuid": "560793be-ddcd-4fd3-a012-1ba67b45df58", "symbol": "DGZ", "name": "Deutsche Bank AG London", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.821, "architecture_energy": 15.631, "architecture_maturity": 20.347, "architecture_confidence": 75.477, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.83, "rotation_up": 21.98, "upward_expansion": 52.78, "deceleration": 89.98, "rotation_down": 35.76, "downward_expansion": 21.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.540373, 5.742809, 5.643413, 5.503367 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 5.39585, "distance_from_trend": -0.002937, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.688714, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.300273, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.271107, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.080342, "excess_performance": -0.205967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.300273, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024202, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0384, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.080342, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.36017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8356, "relative_activity": 0.257454, "balance": 1.36017, "dry_up": 0.731854, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.167461, "annualized_volatility": 0.485344, "from_high_reference": -0.273748, "from_low_reference": 0.312195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.39585, "fair_value_reference": 7.688714, "structural_low": 4.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.007878, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.033632, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.049013, "worst_return": -0.207407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.034756, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.096196, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.052664, "worst_return": -0.123898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028164, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.147168, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.018256, "worst_return": -0.166641, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.067454, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.15493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.259897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", 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"typical_volume": 36896.3, "trend": 5.399183, "fair_value": 7.71974, "relative_strength": -8.210367, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.502246, "energy": 16.814967, "activity_lines": [ 5.68646, 5.825167, 5.651854, 5.504605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 8356, "typical_volume": 32456.25, "trend": 5.39585, "fair_value": 7.688714, "relative_strength": -15.271107, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.821436, "energy": 15.630681, "activity_lines": [ 5.540373, 5.742809, 5.643413, 5.503367 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }