{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56088d11-874f-4f83-98f3-dcbf21dfe790", "symbol": "300173", "name": "Funeng Oriental Equipment Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.293, "architecture_energy": 60.104, "architecture_maturity": 98.767, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 23.01, "upward_expansion": 10.6, "deceleration": 59.08, "rotation_down": 59.04, "downward_expansion": 83.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.141333, 3.213091, 3.491952, 3.737656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.3, "trend_reference": 4.040667, "distance_from_trend": -0.183303, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.872949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.322792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.291074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.271523, "excess_performance": -0.278923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183303, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.322792, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342911, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02895, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.271523, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.304641, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51953006, "relative_activity": 1.355777, "balance": 0.304641, "dry_up": 0.92344, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093007, "annualized_volatility": 0.375344, "from_high_reference": -0.54918, "from_low_reference": 0.153846 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.040667, "fair_value_reference": 4.872949, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.008219, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.008832, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.334356, "worst_return": -0.146814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008475, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.047865, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.033537, "worst_return": -0.280992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.049107, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.082291, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.208589, "worst_return": -0.23516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"gate": "down", "direction": -72.648341, "energy": 84.982861, "activity_lines": [ 3.33, 3.507818, 3.80681, 4.011785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.08, "volume": 29942900, "typical_volume": 43336266.5, "trend": 4.197, "fair_value": 4.898269, "relative_strength": -39.158436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.00346, "energy": 88.958594, "activity_lines": [ 3.225333, 3.400909, 3.713429, 3.934624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.93, "volume": 31103299, "typical_volume": 40658964.75, "trend": 4.114333, "fair_value": 4.888141, "relative_strength": -41.360461, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.074703, "energy": 85.118656, "activity_lines": [ 3.106667, 3.287818, 3.614333, 3.852882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.1, "volume": 28544600, "typical_volume": 38633998.2, "trend": 4.071667, "fair_value": 4.879423, "relative_strength": -36.003442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.283977, "energy": 71.718845, "activity_lines": [ 3.09, 3.224909, 3.53981, 3.787441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.3, "volume": 51953006, "typical_volume": 38319726.85, "trend": 4.040667, "fair_value": 4.872949, "relative_strength": -34.291074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.292534, "energy": 60.104118, "activity_lines": [ 3.141333, 3.213091, 3.491952, 3.737656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }