{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5608b35c-16e7-4d24-b3c4-a03c3aa4cb62", "symbol": "MARUTI", "name": "Maruti Suzuki India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 30.744, "architecture_energy": 20.792, "architecture_maturity": 18.228, "architecture_confidence": 43.562, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.71, "rotation_up": 45.93, "upward_expansion": 41.3, "deceleration": 44.53, "rotation_down": 26.41, "downward_expansion": 15.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 13836.761405, 13777.144902, 13578.614603, 13563.090675 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14037.0, "trend_reference": 13785.19699, "distance_from_trend": 0.018266, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12560.346965, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.220993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.064013, "excess_performance": -0.020304, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018266, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006988, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03221, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.064013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2551054, "relative_activity": 1.458644, "balance": 0.481968, "dry_up": 1.211846, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038029, "annualized_volatility": 0.269053, "from_high_reference": -0.191883, "from_low_reference": 0.150479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13785.19699, "fair_value_reference": 12560.346965, "structural_low": 12201.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.026279, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006082, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.072413, "worst_return": -0.040898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.075706, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.055229, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.223056, "worst_return": -0.022552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.186118, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.119811, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.406235, "worst_return": 0.016965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.24885, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.146308, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.306531, "worst_return": 0.072026, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.132063, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039716, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.073728, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028639, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106161, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128646, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.273087, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034112, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057573, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043702, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.159311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.128732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023385, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 9267.266602, "volume": 1476770, "typical_volume": 2184182.15, "trend": 8815.000082, "fair_value": 7685.792822, "relative_strength": 0.048021, "stage": 2, "regime": 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12529.148547, "relative_strength": -1.877638, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.793261, "energy": 9.824017, "activity_lines": [ 13758.555385, 13692.143261, 13512.109412, 13552.144244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14037.0, "volume": 2551054, "typical_volume": 1748921.5, "trend": 13785.19699, "fair_value": 12560.346965, "relative_strength": -3.220993, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.744296, "energy": 20.792331, "activity_lines": [ 13836.761405, 13777.144902, 13578.614603, 13563.090675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }