{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "560af430-8890-4c6e-a69b-22e927c73161",
    "symbol": "HNRG",
    "name": "Hallador Energy Company",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -62.797,
    "architecture_energy": 62.337,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.997,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.071,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.98,
        "rotation_up": 10.2,
        "upward_expansion": 13.25,
        "deceleration": 37.65,
        "rotation_down": 73.13,
        "downward_expansion": 91.25
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        14.979333,
        15.756364,
        16.465286,
        16.753032
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 14.76,
    "trend_reference": 17.364,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.149965,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 13.232115,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.115468,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -29.226556,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.264207,
    "excess_performance": -0.451661,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.149965,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065531,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.115468,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.382197,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.292266,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.151311,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.264207,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.402808,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3847806,
      "relative_activity": 0.89338,
      "balance": 0.402808,
      "dry_up": 0.840083,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.148295,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.600327,
      "from_high_reference": -0.402429,
      "from_low_reference": 0.081319
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 17.364,
      "fair_value_reference": 13.232115,
      "structural_low": 13.65,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.050339,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": 0.047289,
        "regime_survival": 0.7,
        "best_return": 0.73501,
        "worst_return": -0.394517,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.044201,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.137782,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.681818,
        "worst_return": -0.156124,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.600475,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.711409,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.429752,
        "worst_return": -0.228802,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 2.058802,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": 2.11775,
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        "worst_return": 0.448183,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025335,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.091753,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.072185,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.252129,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.150315,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.148681,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-02-20",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 3178536,
        "typical_volume": 4437255.95,
        "trend": 17.831667,
        "fair_value": 13.130641,
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 33.192415,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 15.24,
        "volume": 2859191,
        "typical_volume": 4448432.5,
        "trend": 17.695667,
        "fair_value": 13.172372,
        "relative_strength": -24.129997,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -57.339433,
        "energy": 47.698645,
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          15.942667,
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          16.899381,
          17.155613
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.22,
        "volume": 4587481,
        "typical_volume": 4418612.7,
        "trend": 17.524333,
        "fair_value": 13.202692,
        "relative_strength": -29.130099,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.641911,
        "energy": 58.150292,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.260667,
          16.115636,
          16.649762,
          16.931376
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 14.76,
        "volume": 3847806,
        "typical_volume": 4307020.0,
        "trend": 17.364,
        "fair_value": 13.232115,
        "relative_strength": -29.226556,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -62.797306,
        "energy": 62.337479,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.979333,
          15.756364,
          16.465286,
          16.753032
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}