{ "ticker": { "uuid": "560c1ec2-d3b5-4923-b250-36480cbace9e", "symbol": "GVS", "name": "GVS S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.256, "architecture_energy": 77.838, "architecture_maturity": 34.504, "architecture_confidence": 69.004, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.43, "rotation_up": 75.87, "upward_expansion": 88.11, "deceleration": 47.9, "rotation_down": 12.14, "downward_expansion": 14.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.564667, 4.461364, 4.360571, 4.242237 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.89, "trend_reference": 4.1395, "distance_from_trend": 0.181302, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.071205, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.035732, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.91023, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.184019, "excess_performance": 0.013128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.181302, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03354, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.035732, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009102, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136206, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.184019, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.265859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 710703, "relative_activity": 1.069982, "balance": 3.265859, "dry_up": 0.715556, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041844, "annualized_volatility": 0.334206, "from_high_reference": -0.072106, "from_low_reference": 0.475113 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.1395, "fair_value_reference": 5.071205, "structural_low": 3.315, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.018571, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.035005, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.099026, "worst_return": -0.336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.128571, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.177554, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.094963, "worst_return": -0.619627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.205357, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.311812, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.017341, "worst_return": -0.49056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 61.8586, "energy": 48.967135, "activity_lines": [ 4.285333, 4.283, 4.162476, 4.104086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.34, "volume": 956222, "typical_volume": 744272.5, "trend": 4.055333, "fair_value": 5.098353, "relative_strength": -12.729703, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.917679, "energy": 57.30147, "activity_lines": [ 4.308333, 4.294273, 4.190405, 4.123634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.585, "volume": 541087, "typical_volume": 739582.45, "trend": 4.080833, "fair_value": 5.092647, "relative_strength": -5.871703, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.449518, "energy": 85.389129, "activity_lines": [ 4.405667, 4.348091, 4.241476, 4.157806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.33, "volume": 385428, "typical_volume": 692782.4, "trend": 4.097, "fair_value": 5.084378, "relative_strength": -10.167139, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.10961, "energy": 67.669427, "activity_lines": [ 4.397, 4.349, 4.265476, 4.173882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.38, "volume": 263927, "typical_volume": 664194.6, "trend": 4.1135, "fair_value": 5.0755, "relative_strength": -9.114445, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.394998, "energy": 55.148671, "activity_lines": [ 4.399, 4.358727, 4.290786, 4.19214 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.89, "volume": 710703, "typical_volume": 664219.3, "trend": 4.1395, "fair_value": 5.071205, "relative_strength": -0.91023, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.256216, "energy": 77.837674, "activity_lines": [ 4.564667, 4.461364, 4.360571, 4.242237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }