{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56131eb5-41eb-420e-823e-7374daf67c00", "symbol": "AMG", "name": "Atlas Metals Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.513, "architecture_energy": 62.172, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.587, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 13.03, "upward_expansion": 9.82, "deceleration": 43.55, "rotation_down": 72.71, "downward_expansion": 85.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.062933, 0.066118, 0.072608, 0.075458 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.0525, "trend_reference": 0.082542, "distance_from_trend": -0.363958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.154277, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.659704, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -68.572515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.511628, "excess_performance": -0.562863, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.363958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360596, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.659704, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.685725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183233, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.511628, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.991287, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1878933, "relative_activity": 1.282816, "balance": 1.991287, "dry_up": 0.698161, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.210447, "annualized_volatility": 0.656574, "from_high_reference": -0.919231, "from_low_reference": 0.036116 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.082542, "fair_value_reference": 0.154277, "structural_low": 0.05067, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.021739, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.512195, "median_excess_return": -0.039447, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.921053, "worst_return": -0.348837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.15877, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.128049, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 3.473684, "worst_return": -0.404494, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.153846, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.215713, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 10.105263, "worst_return": -0.53913, "sufficient": true 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.869807, "energy": 62.715769, "activity_lines": [ 0.068733, 0.073591, 0.076371, 0.079861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0685, "volume": 746582, "typical_volume": 1851067.65, "trend": 0.085625, "fair_value": 0.154341, "relative_strength": -59.043078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.631045, "energy": 45.925405, "activity_lines": [ 0.068733, 0.0717, 0.075632, 0.078673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0675, "volume": 317068, "typical_volume": 1630939.0, "trend": 0.084208, "fair_value": 0.154357, "relative_strength": -59.837341, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.586097, "energy": 41.60425, "activity_lines": [ 0.068333, 0.07, 0.074829, 0.077503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0525, "volume": 1878933, "typical_volume": 1464694.1, "trend": 0.082542, "fair_value": 0.154277, "relative_strength": -68.572515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.512713, "energy": 62.171584, "activity_lines": [ 0.062933, 0.066118, 0.072608, 0.075458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }