{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5616da26-c93a-4548-a692-450fd3cb5960", "symbol": "CRESY", "name": "Cresud SACIF y A", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.777, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.443, "architecture_energy": 25.58, "architecture_maturity": 11.658, "architecture_confidence": 94.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.31, "rotation_up": 18.97, "upward_expansion": 1.74, "deceleration": 49.88, "rotation_down": 47.83, "downward_expansion": 75.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.013333, 11.088, 11.195333, 11.332258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.9, "trend_reference": 11.589, "distance_from_trend": -0.059453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.319054, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169647, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.520814, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.150429, "excess_performance": -0.337882, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0098, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169647, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135208, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.674429, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1003466, "relative_activity": 0.757479, "balance": 0.674429, "dry_up": 0.914088, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091778, "annualized_volatility": 0.371395, "from_high_reference": -0.232935, "from_low_reference": 0.401893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.589, "fair_value_reference": 9.319054, "structural_low": 10.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.088315, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.230769, "median_excess_return": 0.110147, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.269841, "worst_return": -0.170213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.316759, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.24488, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.810345, "worst_return": -0.106347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.572346, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.562693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.829231, "worst_return": 0.259456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"direction": -55.014672, "energy": 31.390956, "activity_lines": [ 11.154, 11.274909, 11.34581, 11.506731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.74, "volume": 1089646, "typical_volume": 1374338.15, "trend": 11.698333, "fair_value": 9.213819, "relative_strength": -12.066283, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.194891, "energy": 44.829972, "activity_lines": [ 10.932667, 11.179455, 11.280619, 11.442774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.19, "volume": 1432013, "typical_volume": 1389089.85, "trend": 11.677, "fair_value": 9.24707, "relative_strength": -6.660369, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.389231, "energy": 40.100986, "activity_lines": [ 10.969333, 11.173273, 11.261333, 11.409978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.21, "volume": 1318612, "typical_volume": 1349304.3, "trend": 11.637667, "fair_value": 9.284578, "relative_strength": -6.807499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.257047, "energy": 31.96629, "activity_lines": [ 11.044, 11.160545, 11.242, 11.379849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.9, "volume": 1003466, "typical_volume": 1324745.15, "trend": 11.589, "fair_value": 9.319054, "relative_strength": -13.520814, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.443221, "energy": 25.579858, "activity_lines": [ 11.013333, 11.088, 11.195333, 11.332258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }