{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56188a5f-3d9d-4b51-87f3-61a43c0ea838", "symbol": "2807", "name": "Global X ETF Series OFC - Global X China Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.925, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.952, "architecture_energy": 67.906, "architecture_maturity": 7.602, "architecture_confidence": 72.667, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.88, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 14.45, "deceleration": 37.39, "rotation_down": 72.25, "downward_expansion": 87.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.464001, 58.511637, 60.656476, 61.018667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 59.200001, "trend_reference": 61.991334, "distance_from_trend": -0.045028, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.160641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.873917, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070935, "excess_performance": -0.037354, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.045028, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156756, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018739, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145649, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09212, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 320387, "relative_activity": 0.888305, "balance": 1.09212, "dry_up": 1.308848, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080146, "annualized_volatility": 0.367975, "from_high_reference": -0.153076, "from_low_reference": 0.189711 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.991334, "fair_value_reference": 50.160641, "structural_low": 51.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.008336, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001388, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.246322, "worst_return": -0.119713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071707, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.017292, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.310265, "worst_return": -0.226454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103489, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.112953, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.445693, "worst_return": -0.122056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 50.077564, "relative_strength": -8.975983, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.671714, "energy": 70.098767, "activity_lines": [ 57.285334, 60.064, 61.376381, 61.673849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.080002, "volume": 462860, "typical_volume": 357703.1, "trend": 62.134, "fair_value": 50.096795, "relative_strength": -9.229802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.373667, "energy": 71.985693, "activity_lines": [ 55.953335, 58.801455, 60.806667, 61.207957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.200001, "volume": 320387, "typical_volume": 360672.4, "trend": 61.991334, "fair_value": 50.160641, "relative_strength": -1.873917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.952323, "energy": 67.906248, "activity_lines": [ 56.464001, 58.511637, 60.656476, 61.018667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }