{ "ticker": { "uuid": "561b01d2-f25c-4a6b-baff-a25f4427abd0", "symbol": "C29", "name": "C29 Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.345, "architecture_energy": 88.233, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.895, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.63, "rotation_up": 9.22, "upward_expansion": 21.96, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 80.02, "downward_expansion": 97.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.015091, 0.020271, 0.022884 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.013, "trend_reference": 0.0256, "distance_from_trend": -0.492188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.051712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.748605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.607649, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.535714, "excess_performance": -0.59942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.492188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056511, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.748605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.486076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.804202, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.535714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.125017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2616404, "relative_activity": 0.96121, "balance": 0.125017, "dry_up": 0.96092, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.224852, "annualized_volatility": 0.921803, "from_high_reference": -0.675, "from_low_reference": 0.181818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0256, "fair_value_reference": 0.051712, "structural_low": 0.011, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.010421, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.525, "worst_return": -0.533333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00704, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.833333, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.134985, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.171043, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.55, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.338816, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.408444, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.252632, "worst_return": -0.425, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120482, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.363636, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.272727, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.296296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.269231, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"volume": 351335, "typical_volume": 2400809.5, "trend": 0.026433, "fair_value": 0.053019, "relative_strength": -46.665002, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.219774, "energy": 92.868815, "activity_lines": [ 0.0154, 0.019836, 0.023795, 0.025497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 1399775, "typical_volume": 2381084.55, "trend": 0.0262, "fair_value": 0.052571, "relative_strength": -46.251678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.097318, "energy": 90.959279, "activity_lines": [ 0.0138, 0.017964, 0.022552, 0.02463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 6094952, "typical_volume": 2634878.35, "trend": 0.025867, "fair_value": 0.052135, "relative_strength": -51.303859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.252547, "energy": 90.943732, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.016273, 0.021319, 0.023714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.013, "volume": 2616404, "typical_volume": 2721990.8, "trend": 0.0256, "fair_value": 0.051712, "relative_strength": -48.607649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.345185, "energy": 88.232988, "activity_lines": [ 0.012733, 0.015091, 0.020271, 0.022884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }