{ "ticker": { "uuid": "562914e1-9a20-4c43-b0e4-34bac2e29275", "symbol": "600208", "name": "Quzhou Xin'an Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.216, "architecture_energy": 43.499, "architecture_maturity": 33.746, "architecture_confidence": 94.55, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.56, "rotation_up": 23.18, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 50.98, "rotation_down": 45.47, "downward_expansion": 73.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.912, 2.909455, 3.186, 3.317613 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.09, "trend_reference": 3.49, "distance_from_trend": -0.114613, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.950705, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047207, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.600185, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164865, "excess_performance": -0.121661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.114613, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100438, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047207, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.713013, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421774, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.379988, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 533585181, "relative_activity": 0.788304, "balance": 0.379988, "dry_up": 0.712546, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120239, "annualized_volatility": 0.81776, "from_high_reference": -0.487562, "from_low_reference": 0.127737 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.49, "fair_value_reference": 2.950705, "structural_low": 2.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00595, "positive_rate": 0.53125, "directional_follow_through": 0.46875, "median_excess_return": 0.001131, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.492114, "worst_return": -0.150134, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.010337, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.022017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.099617, "worst_return": -0.186916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.021191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037619, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.655172, "worst_return": -0.293103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.22145, "energy": 50.392994, "activity_lines": [ 2.828, 2.886364, 3.267857, 3.388946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.87, "volume": 474890214, "typical_volume": 664050023.3, "trend": 3.516, "fair_value": 2.947198, "relative_strength": -23.784887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.421036, "energy": 53.836008, "activity_lines": [ 2.834, 2.875091, 3.214952, 3.345097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.09, "volume": 533585181, "typical_volume": 676877714.55, "trend": 3.49, "fair_value": 2.950705, "relative_strength": -19.600185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.215913, "energy": 43.49898, "activity_lines": [ 2.912, 2.909455, 3.186, 3.317613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }