{ "ticker": { "uuid": "562c124b-cc03-46d6-9962-068ca3bbaf59", "symbol": "COXE", "name": "Cox Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.167, "architecture_energy": 56.933, "architecture_maturity": 57.491, "architecture_confidence": 66.884, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.97, "rotation_up": 39.65, "upward_expansion": 65.5, "deceleration": 72.76, "rotation_down": 27.89, "downward_expansion": 22.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.73, 1.730909, 1.665952, 1.588387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.493667, "distance_from_trend": 0.158224, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.489072, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.161797, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.444348, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.330769, "excess_performance": 0.206338, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.158224, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.161797, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.194071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034443, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.330769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.133865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 3.133865, "dry_up": 3.670403, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029791, "annualized_volatility": 0.240143, "from_high_reference": -0.02809, "from_low_reference": 0.478632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.493667, "fair_value_reference": 1.489072, "structural_low": 1.28, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.22695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 1.61, "volume": 137416, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-11", "close": 1.59, 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84.585377, "activity_lines": [ 1.733333, 1.683091, 1.565476, 1.498129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.73, "volume": 111588, "typical_volume": 22200.65, "trend": 1.435, "fair_value": 1.47871, "relative_strength": 5.477626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.769849, "energy": 70.250261, "activity_lines": [ 1.734667, 1.702909, 1.589333, 1.518022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.73, "volume": 62877, "typical_volume": 25341.65, "trend": 1.45, "fair_value": 1.481383, "relative_strength": 6.920909, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.777243, "energy": 65.216259, "activity_lines": [ 1.733333, 1.716727, 1.611381, 1.537054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.73, "volume": 79166, "typical_volume": 29161.85, "trend": 1.465, "fair_value": 1.484, "relative_strength": 5.43761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.757329, "energy": 63.149861, "activity_lines": [ 1.73, 1.724727, 1.631619, 1.555118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.73, "volume": 1027934, "typical_volume": 79903.15, "trend": 1.479333, "fair_value": 1.486563, "relative_strength": 5.041499, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.192084, "energy": 62.109184, "activity_lines": [ 1.73, 1.728545, 1.64981, 1.572215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 79689.95, "trend": 1.493667, "fair_value": 1.489072, "relative_strength": 3.444348, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.166822, "energy": 56.933227, "activity_lines": [ 1.73, 1.730909, 1.665952, 1.588387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }