{ "ticker": { "uuid": "562df40d-086f-4be9-9882-e43af277f115", "symbol": "PVL", "name": "Permianville Royalty Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 63.735, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -13.223, "architecture_energy": 14.553, "architecture_maturity": 17.359, "architecture_confidence": 64.477, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.4, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 19.7, "deceleration": 70.61, "rotation_down": 33.44, "downward_expansion": 33.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.714138, 1.710828, 1.76047, 1.771963 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.771597, "distance_from_trend": -0.02348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.547467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117956, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.12384, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01303, "excess_performance": -0.138655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02348, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117956, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062289, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121238, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086516, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.205659, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 223271, "relative_activity": 0.559586, "balance": 1.205659, "dry_up": 0.540091, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060179, "annualized_volatility": 0.241654, "from_high_reference": -0.124206, "from_low_reference": 0.104431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.771597, "fair_value_reference": 1.547467, "structural_low": 1.566418, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.019427, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.008129, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.170029, "worst_return": -0.151357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049619, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.000429, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.283319, "worst_return": -0.187455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0021, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024847, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.356149, "worst_return": -0.423219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078707, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005682, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05446, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077408, 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"typical_volume": 479417.8, "trend": 1.774175, "fair_value": 1.560547, "relative_strength": -10.077833, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.112061, "energy": 52.113145, "activity_lines": [ 1.684281, 1.737363, 1.785187, 1.783155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.685387, "volume": 292642, "typical_volume": 437937.05, "trend": 1.773136, "fair_value": 1.555997, "relative_strength": -10.932656, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.068227, "energy": 49.463452, "activity_lines": [ 1.68095, 1.71936, 1.774013, 1.777427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.73, "volume": 153026, "typical_volume": 410490.85, "trend": 1.771557, "fair_value": 1.551783, "relative_strength": -9.329967, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.200273, "energy": 26.104008, "activity_lines": [ 1.698936, 1.71331, 1.767152, 1.774644 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 223271, "typical_volume": 398993.0, "trend": 1.771597, "fair_value": 1.547467, "relative_strength": -12.12384, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.223354, "energy": 14.552846, "activity_lines": [ 1.714138, 1.710828, 1.76047, 1.771963 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }