{ "ticker": { "uuid": "563103a4-6ea4-4d1b-94bd-ccfbfa47077a", "symbol": "002093", "name": "Guomai Technologies, Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.702, "architecture_energy": 55.243, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.103, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.78, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 48.86, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.676, 6.608652, 7.088413, 7.792735 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.94, "trend_reference": 8.851117, "distance_from_trend": -0.215918, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.738107, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205778, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.494716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.374775, "excess_performance": -0.382175, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215918, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163984, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205778, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.344947, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038708, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.374775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80156800, "relative_activity": 1.427726, "balance": 0.445281, "dry_up": 1.5251, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07752, "annualized_volatility": 0.345143, "from_high_reference": -0.515024, "from_low_reference": 0.156667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.851117, "fair_value_reference": 8.738107, "structural_low": 6.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.010223, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.009773, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.553014, "worst_return": -0.140449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.035966, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.014526, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.634095, "worst_return": -0.328105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.141341, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.484714, "worst_return": -0.181299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.518, 6.844468, 7.680909, 8.480852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.23, "volume": 88211175, "typical_volume": 53298942.0, "trend": 9.330784, "fair_value": 8.7586, "relative_strength": -41.527697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.060659, "energy": 70.335127, "activity_lines": [ 6.391333, 6.666092, 7.464987, 8.267597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.24, "volume": 85445246, "typical_volume": 53446322.75, "trend": 9.156451, "fair_value": 8.747794, "relative_strength": -40.68502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.195265, "energy": 68.233708, "activity_lines": [ 6.314, 6.534482, 7.274923, 8.068191 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.95, "volume": 88681348, "typical_volume": 54810047.65, "trend": 9.003117, "fair_value": 8.742103, "relative_strength": -31.961716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.410243, "energy": 63.93828, "activity_lines": [ 6.518667, 6.564115, 7.173621, 7.92584 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.94, "volume": 80156800, "typical_volume": 56142976.05, "trend": 8.851117, "fair_value": 8.738107, "relative_strength": -34.494716, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.702414, "energy": 55.242843, "activity_lines": [ 6.676, 6.608652, 7.088413, 7.792735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }