{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5633118e-7630-4aed-a598-dc4c68dc4b06", "symbol": "L", "name": "Loblaw Companies Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.041, "architecture_energy": 18.649, "architecture_maturity": 26.861, "architecture_confidence": 58.741, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.41, "rotation_up": 42.25, "upward_expansion": 66.72, "deceleration": 55.61, "rotation_down": 22.51, "downward_expansion": 12.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.393332, 64.414612, 63.741147, 63.536605 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 62.889999, "trend_reference": 63.432804, "distance_from_trend": -0.008557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.769538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.316529, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.561134, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058223, "excess_performance": -0.178644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008557, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.316529, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002532, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058223, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.413184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6466100, "relative_activity": 1.344586, "balance": 1.413184, "dry_up": 1.09929, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0443, "annualized_volatility": 0.204192, "from_high_reference": -0.092056, "from_low_reference": 0.196707 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.432804, "fair_value_reference": 47.769538, "structural_low": 58.69969, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03382, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024346, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.087662, "worst_return": -0.014119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107924, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052424, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152111, "worst_return": -0.04567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.089088, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053154, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185552, "worst_return": 0.045588, "sufficient": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019561, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.547425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.120477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", 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"energy": 23.442276, "activity_lines": [ 64.471999, 64.35201, 63.517027, 63.403884 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.809998, "volume": 5575000, "typical_volume": 4942215.0, "trend": 63.388218, "fair_value": 47.549222, "relative_strength": -1.484639, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.608508, "energy": 33.108713, "activity_lines": [ 64.915332, 64.689915, 63.774422, 63.568749 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.889999, "volume": 6466100, "typical_volume": 4808990.0, "trend": 63.432804, "fair_value": 47.769538, "relative_strength": -8.561134, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.040821, "energy": 18.64934, "activity_lines": [ 64.393332, 64.414612, 63.741147, 63.536605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }