{ "ticker": { "uuid": "5634f252-d21d-4181-87b9-cf9e8d29ffb5", "symbol": "4989", "name": "LCY Technology Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.641, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.242, "architecture_energy": 56.324, "architecture_maturity": 22.126, "architecture_confidence": 66.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.16, "rotation_up": 17.83, "upward_expansion": 20.36, "deceleration": 43.87, "rotation_down": 65.06, "downward_expansion": 59.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.813334, 69.120604, 78.633805, 79.948097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 61.900002, "trend_reference": 77.527219, "distance_from_trend": -0.201571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 35.379593, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.749596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.483971, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233068, "excess_performance": -0.112665, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201571, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135431, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.749596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.447181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.21484, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.769856, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233068, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927177, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18398931, "relative_activity": 0.3523, "balance": 0.927177, "dry_up": 0.7014, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.259781, "annualized_volatility": 1.089204, "from_high_reference": -0.5048, "from_low_reference": 1.557851 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.527219, "fair_value_reference": 35.379593, "structural_low": 50.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049312, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058712, "worst_return": 0.039911, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.048064, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.067573, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.029868, "worst_return": -0.066259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.117767, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.016421, "worst_return": -0.219114, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00956, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070611, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.077434, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.271772, "active": false 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"trend": 76.520553, "fair_value": 34.546258, "relative_strength": -13.186252, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.626887, "energy": 11.489635, "activity_lines": [ 78.841106, 83.50181, 87.808407, 83.825874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.599998, "volume": 26217274, "typical_volume": 64452599.25, "trend": 76.780553, "fair_value": 34.734246, "relative_strength": -25.318888, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.254141, "energy": 50.304911, "activity_lines": [ 69.606666, 77.674235, 84.829756, 82.476161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 65.699997, "volume": 53963485, "typical_volume": 56080547.45, "trend": 77.160553, "fair_value": 34.943055, "relative_strength": -14.403892, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.20705, "energy": 53.673763, "activity_lines": [ 65.273332, 74.479388, 82.886344, 81.761286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 64.800003, "volume": 47943110, "typical_volume": 54201760.0, "trend": 77.643886, "fair_value": 35.162927, "relative_strength": -18.857942, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.648457, "energy": 57.542137, "activity_lines": [ 63.626666, 71.826359, 80.898646, 80.963831 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 61.900002, "volume": 18398931, "typical_volume": 52225157.5, "trend": 77.527219, "fair_value": 35.379593, "relative_strength": -21.483971, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.242028, "energy": 56.323576, "activity_lines": [ 62.813334, 69.120604, 78.633805, 79.948097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }