{ "ticker": { "uuid": "56368a65-72e9-450e-942c-42f79b0eff59", "symbol": "EMDV", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Emerging Markets Dividend Aristocrats UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.543, "architecture_energy": 61.52, "architecture_maturity": 19.611, "architecture_confidence": 59.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.46, "rotation_up": 72.21, "upward_expansion": 84.24, "deceleration": 47.58, "rotation_down": 11.45, "downward_expansion": 13.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.981767, 14.851069, 14.822082, 14.789264 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.07, "trend_reference": 14.772526, "distance_from_trend": 0.020137, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.966027, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.162268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.900775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.017418, "excess_performance": -0.153473, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020137, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.162268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017418, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.533575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1510, "relative_activity": 0.469352, "balance": 1.533575, "dry_up": 1.186979, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015703, "annualized_volatility": 0.104411, "from_high_reference": -0.029995, "from_low_reference": 0.099267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.772526, "fair_value_reference": 12.966027, "structural_low": 14.17, "invalidation": "A decisive 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"stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.959466, "energy": 21.821286, "activity_lines": [ 14.615121, 14.690583, 14.718746, 14.716862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.769336, "volume": 10639, "typical_volume": 3815.75, "trend": 14.673861, "fair_value": 12.890258, "relative_strength": -10.465238, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.358442, "energy": 16.600969, "activity_lines": [ 14.643469, 14.690581, 14.725647, 14.724792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.027833, "volume": 1261, "typical_volume": 3377.25, "trend": 14.708014, "fair_value": 12.912405, "relative_strength": -8.49163, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.374638, "energy": 18.684824, "activity_lines": [ 14.769628, 14.742682, 14.758818, 14.747629 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.027833, "volume": 1865, "typical_volume": 3302.85, "trend": 14.744469, "fair_value": 12.937836, "relative_strength": -8.830231, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.126958, "energy": 40.478488, "activity_lines": [ 14.882064, 14.79475, 14.789827, 14.768262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.07, "volume": 1510, "typical_volume": 3217.2, "trend": 14.772526, "fair_value": 12.966027, "relative_strength": -10.900775, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.543199, "energy": 61.519519, "activity_lines": [ 14.981767, 14.851069, 14.822082, 14.789264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }